Since the end of 2021, the 10-year yield has risen from ~1.5% to a peak of ~5% in autumn 2023, then stabilized around 4.6%. With a CPI at 3.5%, the real rate is: r = i – π = 4.6% – 3.5% = 1.1%
Osaic has already reduced its fixed-income allocation from 40% to 31% (+6% commodities). Morgan Stanley recommends 20% bonds / 20% gold. Central banks added 863 tons of gold in 2025 (the 4th largest inflow since 1950). Conclusion: in a regime of growth + dominant fiscal inflation, Treasuries lose their safe-haven role.
