Thesis. The European Omnibus did not kill ESG: it transformed it from a mass legal obligation into a competitive market advantage. Demand for reliable ESG data is shifting from the regulator to the investor, the bank, and the buyer and ESG ratings themselves are now under supervision.
The new regime (Directive (EU) 2026/470, in…
The macro regime as of September 2, 2026, shows a strong U.S. dollar (DXY at ~99.73-99.80) and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (4.78-4.81%), pressuring risk assets. An oil supply shock (Brent ~$95.3, WTI ($4,290-4,325/oz) is declining due to real yields and dollar strength. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) identifies the current regime as "Transition"…
The dominant factor in September is not an endogenous crypto narrative but a regime of real rates and geopolitical energy premiums.
US 10-year yields hit ~4.76-4.78%, the highest since January 2025, while the #DXY traded around 99.45-99.50.
Oil prices (WTI ~$86.5) reacted to US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed funds target is…
The market has exited the capitulation phase of June 2026, where BTC fell below $60k, driven by ETF creations and short squeezes pushing prices to ~$81.3k, though this does not confirm a sustained bullish cycle. Three simultaneous frictions are identified: a BTC supply wall between $81k-$86k, a potential 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting…
Bitcoin surged to $76,800-$77,600, gaining 6-8% in 24 hours and 20% for the week. The market saw over $4 billion in 24-hour liquidations, marking the most violent short squeeze of 2026. Combined BTC/ETH ETF inflows exceeded $800 million, indicating massive institutional entries. The funding rate shifted from negative to positive, signaling a return of long…
The stablecoin market has crossed a symbolic threshold: a market capitalization of over $315 billion. What was, five years ago, a niche tool for crypto traders has become a cash management infrastructure, for funds, fintechs, corporations, and soon, under the effect of the MiCA regulation, for regulated European institutions. Yet the fundamental question remains unchanged:…
The numbers, first. Tokenized real-world assets crossed $30 billion in early 2026, a 300% year-on-year increase : US Treasury debt ($10.7bn), commodities ($5.1bn), private credit ($2.9bn), institutional alternative funds ($2.2bn) leading the mix. Measured against what is coming, $30bn is a rounding error. The 2030 forecasts, by institution:
Source2030+ forecastScope noteMcKinsey~$2tnExcludes crypto, stablecoins, deposits,…
RWA Treasuries (Sharpe 1.0-1.3 | Volatility 2-3%). Asset representing the tokenization of U.S. Treasury bills (e.g., BUIDL, OUSG).
The high Sharpe ratio (1.0-1.3) with negligible volatility (2-3%) makes it the ideal foundation for "Cash-and-Carry" strategies and collateral for HFT strategies. On-Chain Infrastructure and Regulation: The integration of the BIS (tokenization on a unified ledger)…
SpaceX is not a blockchain protocol, a crypto cloud, a native DePIN network, or an on-chain payment processor as of August 10, 2026. It is a physical infrastructure platform (launch, Starlink LEO constellation, emerging terrestrial/orbital AI clusters) whose systemic externalities make it the most credible physical layer zero for the decentralized economy, orbital data, resilient…
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SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…
Carbon Credit Market
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