This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings:
¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…
Gold is considered a tactical long-term asset, but Bitcoin is currently undervalued. ReSolve Asset Management's portfolio manager, Richard Latimer, notes that gold's current price consolidation is expected after its early-year surge. Despite strategically remaining bullish on gold for its structural bull market, ReSolve has become tactically neutral in the short term, having taken profits and…
Hedge funds are increasingly adopting new digital currencies, primarily stablecoins, due to enhanced capital efficiency, regulatory clarity, and new yield-generating strategies. 1| Capital Efficiency Unlike traditional prime brokerage where collateral is largely immobilized, stablecoins acting as collateral can simultaneously secure derivative positions (perpetuals, options, futures) and generate yield from underlying assets like T-bills. This "working…
We are not in a classic crypto cycle; we are witnessing the commoditization of the settlement layer. Bretton Woods I (1944) used a gold-pegged dollar settled via correspondent banks (SWIFT/CHIPS). The current regime (post-1971) relies on the petrodollar and sovereign debt. Bretton Woods 2.0 is based on a Dual Pillar Regime:
1. Physical Pillar…
1.1 Direct Ownership Tokens
1.1.1 On-chain Representation of Carbon Credits Held in Custody by the Investor
Direct ownership tokens constitute the most fundamental form of carbon credit tokenization, representing a digital claim on a physical carbon credit held in custody by an accredited custodian. This structure ensures a one-to-one correspondence between the issued token and…
The ratio of the price of gold to silver, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold, is rapidly decreasing, moving from 62.05 to 54.94 in a week. This drop signals that silver is outperforming gold. Such a fast decline is unusual and typically occurs when a metal…
Intel 18A is not a new x86 processor architecture, but rather a 2nm-class manufacturing process node where Intel will fabricate future CPUs, SoCs, and potentially chips for external clients. This process technology is highly anticipated, as it is central to Intel's strategy to overcome nearly five years of problems, aiming to mark a significant "before…
ETH/BTC est le prix relatif de deux systèmes distribués en concurrence. Ses déterminants principaux sont :
Prime de contrat intelligent : capitalisation sur l’écosystème DeFi et les dApps.
Concurrence des "ETH Killers" : Solana, Avalanche, Sui, Aptos, etc., qui érodent la part de marché d’Ethereum.
Mécanisme de destruction EIP‑1559 et frais de gaz : l’activité réseau alimente l’accumulation…
1.1 Adaptation of the Merton Model: Adjustment of the Probability of Default (PD) using the CCQI Index
The integration of the CCQI Index into credit risk models relies on adapting the structural framework of Merton (1974), where a borrower's Probability of Default (PD) is determined by the distance between the value of their assets and…
(1) XRP — Settlement Layer and Liquidity Bridge
XRP serves as a neutral liquidity bridge between different fiat currencies and tokenized assets. The arrival of seven US spot XRP ETFs (approximately $1 billion in AUM) signals progressive institutionalization. Demand for XRP structurally stems from the volume of transactional flows, which creates continuous buying pressure…
Décarbonisation
Analyse de marché