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Tag: Bitcoin

STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Digital art showcasing a 3D abstraction of golden floating cubes with a soft blurred background.

Analyse de marché

Markets

Gold Projected to Reach $5,000

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Aakash Doshi (State Street) predicts that gold's next $1,000 move will be upward, with consolidation around $4,000 before expanding to $4,750–$5,500. This forecast aligns perfectly with our proprietary quantitative models. By integrating market data, institutional flows, and geopolitical signals through M. Theory 4.2 and leveraging Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 and Quantum-Classical Hybrid 1.0 on…

21 hours ago0Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A close-up image of various world coins in a pile, highlighting different currencies.

War, Hidden Inflation, and the Role of Gold and Silver as Monetary Anchors

https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…

Chinese Restrictions on Paper Gold Trading

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The decision of several major Chinese banks (ICBC, Ping An, China Guangfa) to suspend precious metals trading services linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for individuals, by drastically raising margin requirements to 140%, is not a simple prudential adjustment. Analyzed through M. Theory 4.2 and the Steelldy 3.8 graph engine, this measure…

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Geopolitical Pause Eases Sovereign Selling Pressure

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Current gold price is around $4,100-4,103/oz, with a neutral-to-bullish short-term stance but an intact seller regime risk. The divergence alert between the model and Polymarket is not triggered. Semantic NLP shows a "gold distrust" score of 0.48 (down from 0.62), with dominant themes being the Fed decision, US-Iran pause, oil easing, and PBOC purchases.…

How the War with Iran Is Shaking Central Bank Confidence in Gold Reserves

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The Iran-United States war, triggered in Q1 2026, introduced a second-order exogenous shock to the gold market, destabilizing the strongest pillar of the decade-long bull run: central bank demand. The announcement of the suspension of gold sales by the Azerbaijani sovereign wealth fund (SOFAZ), forced sales by Turkey and Russia, and the contraction of…

07/24/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Close-up of two golden Bitcoin coins on a tablet screen displaying financial data.

Cryptos

Structural risk of private banking blockchains on Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem

https://www.steelldy-indices.com JPMorgan's note from July 9, 2026 identifies a structural threat to Bitcoin and public cryptocurrencies: the rapid expansion of private and permissioned blockchains driven by commercial banks (Kinexys, JPM Coin, tokenized deposits, CBDCs). This trend, supported by settlement volumes exceeding $4 trillion on Kinexys, could siphon institutional demand for public digital assets by offering…

07/13/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos Tech

Bearish or Rebound? The Key Metrics Behind a 34% Rise in Crypto Market Recovery Risk

As of July 2, 2026, the |...| strategy started in May remains valid, with all four assets declining. Current returns for a |...|x short range from -185% to -297%: - STXUSDT: -23.3% to -29.7% decline, ROI -233% to -297%; - LINKUSDT: -6.5% to -18.5% decline, ROI -65% to -185%; - AVAXUSDT: -25.8% to…

07/02/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos

Standard Chartered Calls for Massive UNI Upside: $100 Target by 2030

Uniswap’s UNI token (current price ~$3.00–3.40 post-surge, market cap ~$1.9–2.1B) experienced a +25%+ daily move on Standard Chartered’s initiation coverage with a $100 target by 2030 (from ~$2.50–2.70 base, implying ~35–40x upside). The thesis centers on tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) migrating on-chain, driving DeFi TVL to ~$2.7T (37x expansion) and Uniswap capturing dominant DEX liquidity/trading…

06/17/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Bitcoin and altcoins on table with digital trading chart indicating market trends and investment details.

Cryptos

Bitcoin Faces Macro Headwinds Despite BoJ Hike: New Risks Emerge

While the BoJ’s 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) keeps the yen carry transmission channel active but damped, real risks to BTC increasingly reside elsewhere: a maturing macro slowdown (US Q1 2026 GDP +1.6% annualized, Eurozone ~0.8% projected for 2026), volatile Bitcoin ETF flows (recent outflows amid cumulative ~$54B+ inflows since launch but…

06/17/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos

BoJ Rate Hike Weakens Yen transmission, Damping Bitcoin Volatility

The transmission mechanism Yen strength → USD/JPY depreciation → yen carry trade deleveraging → global liquidity contraction → BTC risk-asset beta spike (~2–3x) remains empirically robust. However, it is significantly attenuated following the BoJ’s fully delivered and well-telegraphed 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) on 16 June 2026. Speculative net-short JPY positions elevated…

06/17/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac