Thesis. The 2026 AI cycle shifts from conversational models to "digital workers" (agents) and physical AI (robots, driving, inspection); value migrates from the model layer to operational integration and automated real assets, converging directly with smart cities and tokenizable infrastructure. Key Data. ~71% of companies are expected to integrate AI agents into key functions…
Thesis. Two "invisible" projects converge in 2026: the completion of the licensed perimeter under MiCA (crypto) and the ISO 20022 mandate for structured addresses (payments). Together, they shape the compliance-execution layer of European programmable finance.
Key data. MiCA: ART/EMT applicable since 30/06/2024; CASP since 30/12/2024; end of grandfathering on 01/07/2026 (some states earlier: Germany/Ireland…
According to Société Générale, the time has come to view gold optimistically again, as they observe a gradual recovery after months of correction. In a recent market assessment, analysts stated the precious metal looks attractive again, despite trimming their gold positions in the first half of the year. Gold recently rebounded to around $2,450 after…
Les trois banques russes Gazprombank, Alef Bank et Interprombank (Алеф-Банк, АКБ «ИНТЕРПРОМБАНК» и Газпромбанк) n’ont pas "volé" le milliard moldave, mais elles ont facilité techniquement le mécanisme de fraude en fournissant des dépôts overnight (dépôts à vue d’un jour, sans intérêt) aux trois banques moldaves impliquées (Banca de Economii, Unibank, Banca Socială), ce qui a…
1.1 Bitcoin. Core Collateral, Not an Alt
Price sits below the self-custody cost basis shelf (~$80.8k) and under the Glassnode band ($81–86k), where negative gamma dealers appear around $82.3k, short squeezes cluster up to $86k, and LTH supply converges at $83–86k.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score hits 80, a high since Oct. 2025, indicating spot and futures…
Bitcoin rallied 6% in the week of August 19, triggered by a yields at their highest since 2007, seen as a fiscal easing signal. CoinShares' James Butterfill noted the rally was driven by macroeconomic factors, not crypto-specific dynamics. T. Rowe Price identified the "debasement trade" as the key driver, where investors shift from cash and…
Private credit funds face significant 2026 risks from two AI-related channels: disruption to software borrowers and demand shortfalls in AI infrastructure. These are compounded by liquidity mismatches, sector concentration, and ties to insurers and pensions. Non-bank direct lending, via vehicles like BDCs, has heavily expanded into both areas, heightening vulnerability.
Two Primary AI-Related Risk…
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. QUANTITATIVE FINANCE
Contagion in AI financing cannot be understood through valuation levels or even growth rates. It is grasped through the counterparty dependency structure and the second derivative of infrastructure spending.
Our cross-analysis shows:
¤ The central risk is not the disappearance of AI demand, but the existence of a…
Circular financing in the AI sector refers to a tightly interlinked system of equity investments, compute commitments, guarantees, and off-balance-sheet structures among chipmakers, hyperscalers, AI labs, and data-center operators. Money and obligations circulate among a small group of counterparties, accelerating infrastructure buildout while amplifying downside risks if end-user monetization falls short.
How It Works.…
Bitcoin surged to $76,800-$77,600, gaining 6-8% in 24 hours and 20% for the week. The market saw over $4 billion in 24-hour liquidations, marking the most violent short squeeze of 2026. Combined BTC/ETH ETF inflows exceeded $800 million, indicating massive institutional entries. The funding rate shifted from negative to positive, signaling a return of long…
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