Author page: Oleg Turceac

Alphractal On-Chain Price Dynamics: Mapping Realized Prices

Visual Data Red arrow: resistance cluster at $78,000–$80,000 (confluence of Realized Price, True Market Mean Price, Active Realized Price, Investor Price, STH Realized Price). Green arrow: structural support cluster at $45,000–$50,000 (LTH Realized Price, CVDD, Delta Price, Average Price). The current price is positioned at the level of the red arrow, testing the…

10 heures ago0Comments

Bitcoin checkonchain STHCB. The Capitulation Line at 78,700 USD

The STH Cost Basis (STHCB), a key indicator for Short-Term Holders, has sharply declined from over $100,000 in January 2026 to approximately $78,700 in May 2026. The current spot price trades below this STHCB, which recently rejected an upward test. This decline signals ongoing capitulation among recent buyers, as "weak hands" sell into dips, resetting…

13 heures ago0Comments

Analyse de marché

Market Mania: US Stock Market Cap Hits 252% of GDP, Far Exceeding 1929 Levels

As of April 30, 2026, the Buffett Ratio (Wilshire 5000 / annualized nominal GDP) reached 227%, with a peak high of 232.6% in March. Paul Tudor Jones uses an expanded measure (total market capitalization / GDP) amounting to approximately 252%, incorporating foreign companies listed in the US and tokenized real assets. This ratio, adjusted for…

The distinction between a « trap » and a « trigger » in crypto market

The distinction between a "trap" and a "trigger" in market analysis centers on their nature, observability, agents involved, and timing. A trap is a static liquidity configuration, often visible in liquidity heatmaps as bid clusters (e.g., 76K–80K), indicating passive retail accumulation and suggesting resistance (high Kyle's Lambda). This configuration can take hours or days…

Liquidity Heatmap showing bid clusters defending the $76,000–$80,000 levels

Cohort-Normalized CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Colored lines reveal that small orders ($100–$10K, green/orange lines) are buying on upward moves, while large blocks ($1M+, purple lines) are selling. Correlation with our April 27th statements : The April 27th post hypothesized a "stealth institutional distribution" in the $77,000–$80,000 range, with a negative delta of –699.51 and a…

Binance Liquidation Heatmap: Cluster Mapping

Visual Data: Liquidation density concentrated at $75,000 (long cluster) and $80,000–$85,000 (short clusters). 1-week heatmap showing yellow/orange bands (high density) at 75K and 81K+. Current price in a "blue" area (low density), i.e., compression zone. Correlation with the April 30th study: The April 30th study modeled a bimodal distribution of liquidations: Mode…

BTCUSD Key Resistance Zone

Visual Data: ¤ Clear resistance zone between $77,400 and $78,000 USD. ¤ Fibonacci 65% at $77,411 USD, 61.8% at $77,196 USD. ¤ Current price below resistance. Correlation with the April 27th Study: The April 27th study identified the selling wall at $79,000–$80,000…

Halving Cycle: The Temporality of Capitulation Visual

Visual data: ~750 days after each halving mark a cyclical top. Subsequent capitulation period: 100–170 days. We are at ~750 days since the April 2024 halving. Correlation with our previous macro studies: The April 28 study postulated a structural decoupling of BTC/NASDAQ with a negative correlation (–0.42). The April 30 study incorporated the…

Heavy Short Positioning Leaves Room for Squeezes

Analysis of Glassnode data as of April 30, 2026, reveals an unprecedented structural compression: Bitcoin is "trapped below market mean," trading at approximately $76,000, below the True Market Mean (around $81,500) and the STH Cost Basis (around $83,000), in a "Cooled" zone (-1σ). The Spot Volume Delta (7-day MA) indicates a stabilization of net selling…

2 jours ago0Comments