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Industrial plant with reflection in water at twilight, showing smoke stacks and lights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
3 jours ago0Comments

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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
4 jours ago0Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil Reserves Plummet: JPMorgan Warns of Looming Economic Shock as Global Buffer Vanishes

Oil reserves are rapidly depleting, eroding the world's crucial buffer against supply shocks. A concerning JP Morgan chart, discussed by David Russell of GoldCore and featured in Bloomberg, illustrates the drastic decline in total discovered oil reserves, measured in billions of barrels. These reserves initially built up during the COVID-19 pandemic when demand plummeted,…
mai 18, 20260Comments

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En chiffresEn chiffres

Closure of the straits (Malacca/Hormuz). Systemic famine scenario 2026-2028 : in the French context.

Analysis of signals from Steelldy Engine G (maritime AIS), Steelldy Engine F (fertilizer blockages), Steelldy Engine M (semantic panic), and Steelldy Engine O (strait closure probabilities) shows exceptional statistical convergence. Michael Yon's analysis (Feb-Apr 2026) regarding prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure and imminent Malacca Strait threats is now a 78% market reality (95% CI: 72–84%),…
mai 2, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil and Gas Infrastructure Impact. Recession Risks through H2 2026

A JP Morgan Commodities Research table listing specific oil and gas assets hit across the Middle East, including pipelines, terminals, ports, depots, and fields in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, and Oman. The table details drone strikes, missile attacks, and fires causing capacity outages, with examples like partial shutdowns at Saudi East-West pipeline, full disruptions…
avril 11, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

De Facto Tolls Solidify: Iran Moves to Formalize Strait of Hormuz Fees and Transit Bans

The Brent oil market shows an extreme divergence between the paper price (futures contracts) at $109 and the physical price (spot) at $141, a $32 gap reflecting a strong "backwardation." Normally, future prices are higher than spot prices (contango) due to storage costs; this inversion signals an immediate scarcity of physical oil. The $141 price…
avril 4, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché Etudes et réportages

Systemic Revaluation of Tangible Assets: Why Gold and Gold Miners Dominate the Market (« The Great Rotation into Reality »)

The current outperformance of gold (XAU) and mining stocks over the rest of the market (especially technology) is not a temporary anomaly. It results from the "double commoditization" of AI and software, which is destroying the monetization model of intellectual capital. As intelligence becomes a cheap and widely available commodity, the physical resources needed to…
mars 3, 20260Comments

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