https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com
The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…
https://www.steelldy-indices.com
The decision of several major Chinese banks (ICBC, Ping An, China Guangfa) to suspend precious metals trading services linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for individuals, by drastically raising margin requirements to 140%, is not a simple prudential adjustment.
Analyzed through M. Theory 4.2 and the Steelldy 3.8 graph engine, this measure…
https://www.steelldy-indices.com
Current gold price is around $4,100-4,103/oz, with a neutral-to-bullish short-term stance but an intact seller regime risk. The divergence alert between the model and Polymarket is not triggered. Semantic NLP shows a "gold distrust" score of 0.48 (down from 0.62), with dominant themes being the Fed decision, US-Iran pause, oil easing, and PBOC purchases.…
https://www.steelldy-indices.com
The Iran-United States war, triggered in Q1 2026, introduced a second-order exogenous shock to the gold market, destabilizing the strongest pillar of the decade-long bull run: central bank demand. The announcement of the suspension of gold sales by the Azerbaijani sovereign wealth fund (SOFAZ), forced sales by Turkey and Russia, and the contraction of…
We are not in a classic crypto cycle; we are witnessing the commoditization of the settlement layer. Bretton Woods I (1944) used a gold-pegged dollar settled via correspondent banks (SWIFT/CHIPS). The current regime (post-1971) relies on the petrodollar and sovereign debt. Bretton Woods 2.0 is based on a Dual Pillar Regime:
1. Physical Pillar…
1.1 Direct Ownership Tokens
1.1.1 On-chain Representation of Carbon Credits Held in Custody by the Investor
Direct ownership tokens constitute the most fundamental form of carbon credit tokenization, representing a digital claim on a physical carbon credit held in custody by an accredited custodian. This structure ensures a one-to-one correspondence between the issued token and…
The ratio of the price of gold to silver, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold, is rapidly decreasing, moving from 62.05 to 54.94 in a week. This drop signals that silver is outperforming gold. Such a fast decline is unusual and typically occurs when a metal…
Intel 18A is not a new x86 processor architecture, but rather a 2nm-class manufacturing process node where Intel will fabricate future CPUs, SoCs, and potentially chips for external clients. This process technology is highly anticipated, as it is central to Intel's strategy to overcome nearly five years of problems, aiming to mark a significant "before…
ETH/BTC est le prix relatif de deux systèmes distribués en concurrence. Ses déterminants principaux sont :
Prime de contrat intelligent : capitalisation sur l’écosystème DeFi et les dApps.
Concurrence des "ETH Killers" : Solana, Avalanche, Sui, Aptos, etc., qui érodent la part de marché d’Ethereum.
Mécanisme de destruction EIP‑1559 et frais de gaz : l’activité réseau alimente l’accumulation…
1.1 Adaptation of the Merton Model: Adjustment of the Probability of Default (PD) using the CCQI Index
The integration of the CCQI Index into credit risk models relies on adapting the structural framework of Merton (1974), where a borrower's Probability of Default (PD) is determined by the distance between the value of their assets and…
Analyse de marché
Carbon Credit Market