Executive Summary
Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
Gold prices have plummeted, trading near $4,078.00, down 4.26%, and silver near $63.605, down 2.66%, following Wednesday's trading close. This decline is attributed to a higher-than-expected May inflation report, rising Treasury yields, and escalating US-Iran tensions, which have overshadowed demand for safe-haven assets. US consumer prices rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year-on-year, with core…
Excerpt from the article by Neils Christensen
The gold market has experienced a downturn, with prices falling below $4,500 and testing the critical 200-day moving average support. Despite this short-term selling pressure, attributed to inflation concerns and speculation of interest rate hikes, one fund manager, Tom Winmill of the Midas Discovery Fund, believes the long-term…
The original Triffin Dilemma (Bretton Woods I) pitted the issuance of international liquidity (USD) against the necessary convertibility into gold, creating a tension between domestic objectives (avoiding inflation) and international objectives (providing reserves). In the Bretton Woods 2.0 framework, the form of this dilemma is rewritten based on strict collateral rules imposed by the GENIUS…
On Tuesday, May 12, 2026, gold prices dropped by 1.5% to $4,665 despite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. This counterintuitive movement occurs because high inflation data first influences the Federal Reserve's expectations, which then drives market reactions, often moving…
Global gold ETFs registered inflows despite inflationary risks, with gold prices hovering near 4,700 per ounce at the start of the week. Analysts remain optimistic about a price recovery in the second half of the year due to sustained investment demand, evidenced by global gold-backed ETF inflows in April.
According to the World Gold…
As of April 30, 2026, the Buffett Ratio (Wilshire 5000 / annualized nominal GDP) reached 227%, with a peak high of 232.6% in March. Paul Tudor Jones uses an expanded measure (total market capitalization / GDP) amounting to approximately 252%, incorporating foreign companies listed in the US and tokenized real assets. This ratio, adjusted for…
Notre article développe le "Théorème de l'inférence stagflationnaire" en appliquant une analyse multi-méthodes aux données macroéconomiques et aux déclarations de la Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE), se concentrant sur l'état de l'économie de la zone euro en mars 2026.
La stagflation est définie par une convergence simultanée d'inflation supérieure à la cible (πt > π∗…
UBS analysts forecast a significant increase in gold prices, predicting a rise of 20% to reach $6,200 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from current levels. This projection persists despite gold's subdued performance following the conflict with Iran, where it failed to act as a strong safe-haven asset, contrasting with its 65% surge…
In a podcast discussion, Mike Maharrey of Money Metals interviewed Brian Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, regarding factors influencing the gold and silver markets. Lundin argued that long-term monetary trends, rather than short-term geopolitical events, fundamentally drive metal prices.
While global conflicts like tensions involving Iran caused brief spikes in gold prices…
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