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Tag: Inflation

Industrial plant with reflection in water at twilight, showing smoke stacks and lights.

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…

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Two gold bars rest on a pile of US dollar bills, symbolizing wealth and prosperity.

Inflation Surge Crushes Gold & Silver Amidst Geopolitical Turbulence

Gold prices have plummeted, trading near $4,078.00, down 4.26%, and silver near $63.605, down 2.66%, following Wednesday's trading close. This decline is attributed to a higher-than-expected May inflation report, rising Treasury yields, and escalating US-Iran tensions, which have overshadowed demand for safe-haven assets. US consumer prices rose 0.5% in May and 4.2% year-on-year, with core…

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A striking illumination of a gold-colored mineral against a dark background, showcasing its intricate details.

Gold Prices Dip, But Fund Manager Sees Long-Term Rally Intact

Excerpt from the article by Neils Christensen The gold market has experienced a downturn, with prices falling below $4,500 and testing the critical 200-day moving average support. Despite this short-term selling pressure, attributed to inflation concerns and speculation of interest rate hikes, one fund manager, Tom Winmill of the Midas Discovery Fund, believes the long-term…

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The “New Dilemma”: Mathematical Formalization of the Triffin Paradox 2.0

The original Triffin Dilemma (Bretton Woods I) pitted the issuance of international liquidity (USD) against the necessary convertibility into gold, creating a tension between domestic objectives (avoiding inflation) and international objectives (providing reserves). In the Bretton Woods 2.0 framework, the form of this dilemma is rewritten based on strict collateral rules imposed by the GENIUS…

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Inflation Shock Triggers Counterintuitive 1.5% Gold Plunge as Fed Hike Bets Soar

On Tuesday, May 12, 2026, gold prices dropped by 1.5% to $4,665 despite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. This counterintuitive movement occurs because high inflation data first influences the Federal Reserve's expectations, which then drives market reactions, often moving…

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Inférence stagflationnaire tirée des déclarations de Fabio Panetta et du contexte macro-énergétique

Notre article développe le "Théorème de l'inférence stagflationnaire" en appliquant une analyse multi-méthodes aux données macroéconomiques et aux déclarations de la Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE), se concentrant sur l'état de l'économie de la zone euro en mars 2026. La stagflation est définie par une convergence simultanée d'inflation supérieure à la cible (πt ​> π∗…

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Debt, Deficits, and Dollar Debasement Fueling Gold’s Bull Market

In a podcast discussion, Mike Maharrey of Money Metals interviewed Brian Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, regarding factors influencing the gold and silver markets. Lundin argued that long-term monetary trends, rather than short-term geopolitical events, fundamentally drive metal prices. While global conflicts like tensions involving Iran caused brief spikes in gold prices…

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