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French Debt Crosses the Rubicon: 30-Year OAT Yield Hits Phase Transition at 4.6926%

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The morning fixing of the 30-year French OAT yield at 4.6926% marks a "phase transition" market event. Cross-referenced with our proprietary risk engines, this level signals a critical threshold for French debt sustainability, with non-negligible probability of a self-fulfilling confidence crisis. Key findings: the 5-year implied probability of a French fiscal accident jumped from…
07/09/20260Comments

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Bearded businessman analyzing financial statistics on a laptop, with stock market graphs in the background.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Why Analysts Say It’s Not Too Late to Bet on Gold for Long-Term Gains

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Despite acknowledging potential short-term headwinds, analysts remain broadly optimistic about gold's future price trajectory, with many expecting continued growth over the next several years. The path to $6,000 per ounce remains open, even after a correction in 2026. Central banks continue to diversify their reserves aggressively, a major driver of demand. After the escalation…
07/07/20260Comments

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Why OCBC Cut Its Gold Price Outlook by 15% While Other Banks Stay Bullish

On the last day of June, gold traded at $4,023 per ounce. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC), a major Southeast Asian bank, lowered its year-end gold forecast from $5,100 to $4,360, citing rising real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy. https://www.steelldy-indices.com The bank also reduced its silver forecast by about…
07/02/20260Comments

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Detailed close-up of gold bars and coins symbolizing wealth and investment opportunities.
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Gold Dips Below $4,000 on Fed Hawkishness, but Heraeus Sees Support from Easing Inflation Expectation

According to precious metals market analysts at Heraeus, gold and silver prices are expected to rise soon due to declining oil prices, which ease inflation expectations and reduce bond yields, while developments in the Pacific region suggest a potential shift of the gold market's center of gravity to the East. In their latest review, analysts…
06/30/20260Comments

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Iconic Euro sculpture with modern skyscrapers in Frankfurt, Germany showcasing the financial district.
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Continued rate hikes. ECB towards 3.75%. Fed towards 5.75% by end of 2026

These projections come from a complete hybrid Monte Carlo simulation (incorporating coupled stochastic processes, embedded HMM regime-switching, an affine term structure for rates, and Poisson jumps for geopolitical shocks), calibrated on Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 data (backtests 1971-2026), ECB staff projections from June 2026, and current macro flows (Bund 10Y ≈ 2.86-2.90%, ECB deposit rate…
06/26/20260Comments

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Close-up of gold bars on Thai baht banknotes, symbolizing wealth and prosperity.
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Gold vs. Bonds: As Central Banks Hike Rates, Investors Ditch the Yellow Metal for Yield

Gold is currently weakening despite inflation, due to several key factors. In May, Germany’s inflation rate was surprisingly moderate at 2.6% annually, significantly lower than the eurozone’s 3.2%. This deviation from the European trend was primarily driven by a temporary fuel subsidy introduced by the German government, which reduced gasoline and diesel prices. However, this…
06/26/20260Comments

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Black and white image of gold bars placed on scattered US dollar bills, symbolizing wealth.
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Beyond the Bullion: Quantifying Gold’s Future Value in a Debt-Ridden World

The technical analysis posits a bullish outlook for gold, targeting $17,250/oz, underpinned by structural US fiscal dominance, accelerated de-dollarization, and a monetary re-evaluation of gold as an alternative reserve asset. As of June 13, 2026, US gross public debt stands at approximately $39.2 trillion, with debt held by the public at around $31.6 trillion,…
06/16/20260Comments

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