Since the end of 2021, the 10-year yield has risen from ~1.5% to a peak of ~5% in autumn 2023, then stabilized around 4.6%. With a CPI at 3.5%, the real rate is: r = i - π = 4.6% - 3.5% = 1.1%
Osaic has already reduced its fixed-income allocation from 40% to…
Economic studies
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The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…
This paper examines the integration of advanced risk management techniques with sophisticated tax optimization strategies in alternative investment portfolios. We propose a comprehensive framework combining A. tail risk analytics with Big Four accounting firm structuring methodologies, enhanced by Monte Carlo simulations for tax provisioning volatility assessment. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the implementation of Special…
A meta-analysis of 127 peer-reviewed studies (2000-2024) on behavioral economics, personal data valuation, prediction markets, surveillance capitalism, and universal basic income (UBI) with data was conducted. The analysis of key studies reveals several critical findings.
Study 1 (Acquisti, Taylor, Wagman, 2020) found that the average willingness-to-accept (WTA) for sharing continuous GPS location data is…
Analysis and summary based on the article "The Iran War Is Exposing the Petrodollar While Boosting the Yuan" by Eric Sepanek
The conflict involving Iran is challenging the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global financial system, despite an initial spike in the dollar's value (DXY) following the outbreak of war, which primarily reflects immediate…
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle appear to have recently consolidated control over Iran's military response and negotiating strategy concerning the United States, evidenced by the IRGC Navy attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and declaring it closed to all traffic. …
Hamza Lemssouguer's Arini Capital fund, launched in 2022 with $1.3 billion and reaching $20 billion in assets under management, is highlighted for its focus on European distressed debt and high-yield credit refinancing for companies like Altice. Arini closed its flagship fund at $4 billion to maintain performance and is expanding into CLOs and private credit.…
The current outperformance of gold (XAU) and mining stocks over the rest of the market (especially technology) is not a temporary anomaly. It results from the "double commoditization" of AI and software, which is destroying the monetization model of intellectual capital. As intelligence becomes a cheap and widely available commodity, the physical resources needed to…
Le Kremlin s'est prononcé sur un article de The Economist concernant des projets entre la Russie et les États-Unis. Dmitri Peskov, porte-parole du président, a réaffirmé l'intérêt de la Russie pour la reprise de la coopération commerciale, économique et d'investissement avec les États-Unis, estimant que cela pourrait être mutuellement bénéfique.
L'article du magazine The…
L'Allemagne envisage un mécanisme de "partage des revenus" basé sur une interprétation large de la "solidarité européenne" (Art. 122 TFUE), menaçant la souveraineté énergétique (Art. 194 TFUE). Ce transfert forcé des revenus d'EDF vers un fonds européen pour subventionner les prix allemands est qualifié d'"expropriation de rente réglementaire", constituant une violation du droit de propriété…
Analyse de marché