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Tag: safe haven asset

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STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Cryptos Tech

Crypto Short Squeeze

Bitcoin surged to $76,800-$77,600, gaining 6-8% in 24 hours and 20% for the week. The market saw over $4 billion in 24-hour liquidations, marking the most violent short squeeze of 2026. Combined BTC/ETH ETF inflows exceeded $800 million, indicating massive institutional entries. The funding rate shifted from negative to positive, signaling a return of long…

08/21/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Colorful display of Zcash, Litecoin, and Bitcoin coins on gradient background.

Cryptos

Stablecoins: $315 billion in circulation, zero dynamic reserve ratings. Why this must change

Price is the last indicator to move The stablecoin market has reached a new milestone: over $315 billion in total market capitalization, serving as the backbone of on-chain settlements, with adoption now extending far beyond the crypto ecosystem alone cross-border payments, corporate treasuries, and collateral for tokenized finance. Yet a massive, under-discussed anomaly persists:…

08/20/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A striking close-up of a gold bar showing inscriptions, captured with warm lighting.

Analyse de marché

Gold as an Implicit Call Option on Fiat Collapse: A Model-Driven Analysis

According to the methodology of Dixit and Pindyck (1994), gold contains an implicit call option on the collapse of the fiat system. The price dynamics St incorporate a Poisson jump process Nt: dSt/St = μdt + σdWt + (J-1)dNt, where Nt∼Poisson(λ) for the arrival of a systemic fiat crisis, and J is the jump amplitude…

08/16/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Economic studies

The attention economy as a financial asset

The thesis puts forward a five-part proposition: (i) the "vital energy" mentioned in the source text is formally isomorphic to the economic quantity of human attention, a scarce, allocable, measurable resource, as theorized by Herbert Simon (1971) and Michael Goldhaber (1997); (ii) this resource is captured by large corporations through a chain of signaling (Spence,…

Profitability and margin structure. Quantified comparison of SpaceX (Q2 2026) vs hyperscaler models (AWS, Azure/Microsoft Cloud, Google Cloud, Meta AI infrastructure).

https://www.steelldy-indices.com SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…

Structured Quantitative Financial Analysis of SpaceX. Consolidated Accounts for Q2 2026 (period ended June 30, 2026)

Revenue decomposition and growth dynamics for Q2 FY26 Consolidated revenue reached 7,814, representing a 91.94% year-over-year increase from 4,071. The total revenue growth of 3,743 is driven by AI compute capacity rental (approx. +1,880, 50.2% of the increase), Starlink Connectivity (approx. +1,700, 45.4%), and Space Launch & other (residual +163). Key margins for Q2 FY26:…

Dr. Copper & Global Recession Risk

Executive Summary Copper ("Dr. Copper") remains a useful leading indicator of global industrial activity due to its ubiquitous use (power grids, construction, automotive, electronics, data centers). Futures are currently trading above $6.50/lb (COMEX), up about 30% year-over-year, and are holding above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The metal formed a trough before equity markets…

08/04/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Close-up of Bitcoin and Ethereum coins symbolizing digital currency and blockchain technology.

Cryptos Tech

The ETH/BTC ratio currently stands at approximately 0.0292–0.0293

The ETH/BTC ratio currently stands at approximately 0.0292–0.0293 (early August 2026), meaning one Ethereum is worth about 2.92–2.93% of one Bitcoin. Recent historical context (2025-2026): - Local peak: 0.0421 (August 24, 2025) - Cycle low: 0.02578 (June 6, 2026), down 38.8% from peak - Current level: ≈0.0292 (August 4, 2026), up 13–14% from the low…

08/04/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Golden Bitcoin coins scattered over US dollar bills, symbolizing modern digital currency.

Cryptos

The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD)

The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD) remains weak and unstable over the long term, making them an excellent diversification pair. Long-term (since 2015/3-5 years): average correlation ≈ +0.10 to +0.13. Over one year: typically between -0.17 and +0.32. Short-term (30 days): currently negative (recent readings between -0.31 and -0.46, with extremes at -0.88…

08/04/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos Tech

BTC, Liquidity Pools, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios

1. Liquidity Pools include: Binance spot ($5-10B daily), Coinbase spot ($1-3B), perpetuals from Binance, Bybit, OKX ($20-40B), CME Futures ($2-5B), US spot ETFs like IBIT and FBTC ($1-3B), and OTC/DP estimated at $2-5B. 2. Institutional flows show CTA trend-following algorithms are neutral with no large liquidation signals. ETF flows have slight net outflows recently,…

07/31/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac