Analyse de marché
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Despite acknowledging potential short-term headwinds, analysts remain broadly optimistic about gold’s future price trajectory, with many expecting continued growth over the next several years. The path to $6,000 per ounce remains open, even after a correction in 2026. Central banks continue to diversify their reserves aggressively, a major driver of demand. After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, governments globally increased gold holdings in response to the weaponization of the US dollar and sanctions.
From 2022 to 2024, central banks added over 1,000 tonnes annually, nearly double previous rates. UBS expects official purchases to remain between 750 and 1,000 tonnes by end of 2026. A World Gold Council survey shows 45% of central banks plan to increase reserves in the next 12 months, a record high.
Rising government debt is another key factor. US national debt is projected to reach $50 trillion by 2030, driven by persistent federal deficits and growing interest costs, which already hit $1 trillion. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have significantly increased debt. This loss of faith in fiat currencies, especially the US dollar, supports gold as a safer alternative.
Inflation remains above historical targets, acting as a long-term tailwind for gold. While high inflation may prompt the Fed to keep rates high temporarily, it makes safe-haven assets like precious metals more attractive for their intrinsic value and protection against volatility. Inflation is expected to stay elevated due to high debt, deficits, and energy shocks.
Gold’s role in global reserves is growing substantially. This marks a seismic shift, signaling de-dollarization as countries move away from the weakening dollar. Investment demand remains at record levels. In 2025, total demand reached 5,000 tonnes, with investment demand up 84% year-on-year.
Gold ETFs saw 801.2 tonnes of inflows, and demand for bars and coins reached a 12-year high. This momentum has continued into 2026. Major banks have shifted their stance, moving from skepticism to recommending gold as a core portfolio component. The traditional 60/40 portfolio model has evolved to 60/20/20, with 20% in gold. Basel III elevated gold to Tier 1 status.
On average, analysts expect gold to reach $6,000 per ounce by end of 2026. For investors wondering if it’s too late to buy in 2026, the answer focuses on long-term fundamentals. While gold experienced a significant correction, the underlying drivers remain intact: record central bank buying, soaring government debt, persistent inflation, diminishing dollar dominance, and global conflicts. The key distinction is between speculators focused on short-term price moves and long-term holders who value gold as insurance against market downturns and wealth preservation. Patient investors are best positioned to benefit from gold’s full potential.
