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Tag: volatility

STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Turkish Lira banknotes of various denominations displayed, showcasing historical currency.

Analyse de marché

Markets

Crisis and Tactical Roadmap on the Turkish Lira (TRY) Crash

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The TRY is no longer a currency; it is an Exotic Option on Credibility. Traditional analysis (GDP, balance of payments) is obsolete. Our framework, based on M. theory and signal processing in "quantitative finance," reclassifies the Turkish Lira not as a currency subject to depreciation, but as a perpetual down-and-out barrier option on the…

07/21/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Markets

Dissection of the “Kospi Unwind”.

https://scoregex.streamlit.app On 20 July 2026, the KOSPI experienced a sharp deleveraging event, with the index falling over 4% intraday to close near 6,516. Key stocks Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped ~4.3% and ~4.2% respectively, driven by structural concentration risk in AI/HBM memory, leveraged product amplification, policy tightening by the Bank of Korea, and margin-call…

French Debt Crosses the Rubicon: 30-Year OAT Yield Hits Phase Transition at 4.6926%

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The morning fixing of the 30-year French OAT yield at 4.6926% marks a "phase transition" market event. Cross-referenced with our proprietary risk engines, this level signals a critical threshold for French debt sustainability, with non-negligible probability of a self-fulfilling confidence crisis. Key findings: the 5-year implied probability of a French fiscal accident jumped from…

Why Analysts Say It’s Not Too Late to Bet on Gold for Long-Term Gains

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Despite acknowledging potential short-term headwinds, analysts remain broadly optimistic about gold's future price trajectory, with many expecting continued growth over the next several years. The path to $6,000 per ounce remains open, even after a correction in 2026. Central banks continue to diversify their reserves aggressively, a major driver of demand. After the escalation…

07/07/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos

Analysis of the Exclusion of CCTs from the Substance-Based Carve-Out

1.1 Economic and Legal Basis for the Exclusion of Intangible Assets The concept of the "substance trap," formalized by STEELDY in their research on the interaction between Pillar Two and environmental tokenization, refers to a situation where an investment vehicle holding highly intangible assets is structurally unable to reduce its tax base through the SBIE…

Foreign state and institutional holdings of US Treasuries since the escalation of the Iranian conflict

We use exclusively verifiable public data, collected and processed by our Steelldy Risk Engine 3.4 infrastructure and Bloomberg Intelligence modules: - Treasury International Capital (TIC): Monthly and annual reports, raw and adjusted data for valuation and hedging effects, broken down by country and maturity (source: Treasury.gov). - Official reserve flows: IMF COFER (Currency…

06/25/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

ESG Data Services

Quantum-Classical Hybrid Optimization framework for after-tax portfolio allocation under regime constraints

The Quantum-Classical Hybrid Optimization framework for after-tax portfolio allocation under regime constraints integrates quantum variational algorithms (e.g., QAOA, VQE, Hybrid HHL++) with classical solvers (convex optimization, MPC) to solve high-dimensional, non-convex problems involving tax-aware objectives, Markov-switching regimes (market, volatility, regulatory/tax), counterparty/basis risks, and fiscal uncertainty in synthetic carbon credit tokens. This hybrid approach addresses the…

06/22/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos

BoJ Rate Hike Weakens Yen transmission, Damping Bitcoin Volatility

The transmission mechanism Yen strength → USD/JPY depreciation → yen carry trade deleveraging → global liquidity contraction → BTC risk-asset beta spike (~2–3x) remains empirically robust. However, it is significantly attenuated following the BoJ’s fully delivered and well-telegraphed 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) on 16 June 2026. Speculative net-short JPY positions elevated…

06/17/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Vertical shot of a SpaceX rocket tower against a blue sky in Dubai, UAE.

Analyse de marché

State and Evolution of SpaceX Stock Price (SPCX)

SpaceX's historic June 12, 2026 IPO, priced at $135/share, raised $75 billion, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. The stock opened at $150 (+11.1%), hit $176.52 intraday, and closed between $160-$173 (+19-28%), pushing its market cap above $2.1 trillion. The central thesis highlights severe negative convexity, typical of hyper-valued tech IPOs, with a 2025 revenue…

06/15/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A dynamic image showcasing Bitcoin, credit cards, and financial apps for investment enthusiasts.

Cryptos

Construction of a Conditional Hedge via MNQ Micro E-mini Nasdaq Short. Calibration on BTC Beta=0.45

This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings: ¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…

06/06/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac