Analyse de marché
Rising silver prices may increase scrap supply while simultaneously raising recyclers’ need for working capital. Because raw materials are usually purchased before payment is received from refining plants, higher metal prices and processing delays increase financial pressure and may slow the flow of recycled silver onto the market. In 2025, global silver recycling volume grew by approximately 2%, reaching 197.6 million troy ounces.
Recycling of jewelry increased by 6% and silverware by 7%, while industrial silver recycling declined by nearly 1% to 110.1 million troy ounces, partly due to lower metal content in modern electronics. Some refining plants in North America and Europe extended processing and settlement times or temporarily stopped accepting certain types of scrap. High prices and silver lease rates intensified pressure on companies’ cash flows, balance sheets, and credit lines.
For example, financing an inventory of 1000 troy ounces for 30 days at an annual rate of 10% costs approximately $247 at a price of $30 per ounce and $493 at a price of $60. Although companies often finance only part of the metal’s value in practice, this example shows that doubling the price doubles financing requirements when the physical volume of inventory remains unchanged.
The financial consequences of delays depend on contracts, ownership of the metal, payment terms, liquidity, and lending conditions. Companies that pay for raw materials immediately but receive funds only after refining incur additional costs when the settlement cycle lengthens; if the supplier receives payment only after the final assay, the financial burden may fall primarily on that supplier. At the same time, the silver lease rate reflects the cost of obtaining physical metal, whereas the cash borrowing rate reflects the cost of capital, so the two are not interchangeable and do not establish a single financing cost for the entire industry.
Constraints on processing capacity and financing do not necessarily indicate a global silver shortage: they may simply temporarily slow the conversion of scrap into metal ready for sale. Increased recycling also does not guarantee that the recovered silver will become available immediately, and recycling volumes do not directly reflect the inventory available for delivery at any given time.
According to the Silver Institute’s forecast, global recycling is expected to reach approximately 211.3 million troy ounces in 2026, 7% above the 2025 figure; this is a forecast, not an actual result. Investors should assess a combination of indicators: processing and settlement times, scrap acceptance rules, purchase discounts, financing terms, and recycling volumes. Discounts depend on metal content, raw material quality, refining costs, and contractual terms, while retail premiums also depend on production capacity, dealer inventories, product availability, and distribution costs. No single indicator, on its own, proves that the market is undersupplied.
As author Alan Hibbard emphasizes, understanding market resilience requires distinguishing between existing silver inventories, metal entering the recycling process, and the volume that businesses can economically recover and deliver to buyers.
