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Tag: Hedge

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Close-up of gold bars on Thai baht banknotes, symbolizing wealth and prosperity.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold vs. Bonds: As Central Banks Hike Rates, Investors Ditch the Yellow Metal for Yield

Gold is currently weakening despite inflation, due to several key factors. In May, Germany’s inflation rate was surprisingly moderate at 2.6% annually, significantly lower than the eurozone’s 3.2%. This deviation from the European trend was primarily driven by a temporary fuel subsidy introduced by the German government, which reduced gasoline and diesel prices. However, this…
06/26/20260Comments

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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
06/11/20260Comments

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A dynamic image showcasing Bitcoin, credit cards, and financial apps for investment enthusiasts.
Cryptos

Construction of a Conditional Hedge via MNQ Micro E-mini Nasdaq Short. Calibration on BTC Beta=0.45

This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings: ¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…
06/06/20260Comments

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Cryptos

From Hedge to Strategy: Gold’s New Role, Bitcoin’s Rise in Portfolios

Gold is considered a tactical long-term asset, but Bitcoin is currently undervalued. ReSolve Asset Management's portfolio manager, Richard Latimer, notes that gold's current price consolidation is expected after its early-year surge. Despite strategically remaining bullish on gold for its structural bull market, ReSolve has become tactically neutral in the short term, having taken profits and…
05/21/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

La faillite de PrimaLend suite à une fraude, qui relie directement le système bancaire de l’ombre (Shadow Banking) aux tensions de liquidité de la Fed

Ceci n'est pas un problème de taux, c'est un problème de confiance et de risque de contrepartie au sein du système financier non régulé. Nous devons analyser cette information en l'intégrant à notre thèse du pivot forcé de la Fed, de la crise bancaire et du risque d'éclatement de la bulle SPX. ANALYSE MACRO-ÉCONOMIQUE :…
11/03/20250Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché Cryptos MarketsMarkets Tech Uncategorized

La surperformance du BTC et la crise de confiance

1. La surperformance du BTC est le reflet d'une rotation massive de capitaux des actifs traditionnels vers l'actif de réserve numérique : 1.1.    Délitement de la Big Tech : le BTC surperforme les géants technologiques. Cela s'explique par la fin du cycle de croissance facile des entreprises qui dépendent d'un système économique ouvert et stable. Les…
10/25/20250Comments

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