Three macro variables dominate the pricing of five crypto assets today. The August CPI, released on September 11, is the last inflation print before the FOMC. A "hot" print raises perceived r* and compresses crypto duration, while a disinflationary print reopens the hold scenario.
The FOMC meeting on September 15-16 has hike probabilities of…
AI will lead to mass dumbing down of society. This is one of the most underestimated risks of AI transformation. The process of societal dumbing down was already rapid before LLMs, but now it could accelerate exponentially. Not progress, but degradation of society will speed up. This involves the gradual destruction of the very mechanism…
Thesis. While the market watches tokens, the largest financial data upgrade in history is concluding: after the end of the MT/MX coexistence period (November 22, 2025 — 97% of cross-border payments now in ISO 20022), 2027 mandates structured/hybrid addresses on SWIFT CBPR+ (SEPA on the 15th), with 65% of messages still non-compliant and 44% of…
According to Société Générale, the time has come to view gold optimistically again, as they observe a gradual recovery after months of correction. In a recent market assessment, analysts stated the precious metal looks attractive again, despite trimming their gold positions in the first half of the year. Gold recently rebounded to around $2,450 after…
Private credit funds face significant 2026 risks from two AI-related channels: disruption to software borrowers and demand shortfalls in AI infrastructure. These are compounded by liquidity mismatches, sector concentration, and ties to insurers and pensions. Non-bank direct lending, via vehicles like BDCs, has heavily expanded into both areas, heightening vulnerability.
Two Primary AI-Related Risk…
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. QUANTITATIVE FINANCE
Contagion in AI financing cannot be understood through valuation levels or even growth rates. It is grasped through the counterparty dependency structure and the second derivative of infrastructure spending.
Our cross-analysis shows:
¤ The central risk is not the disappearance of AI demand, but the existence of a…
Executive Summary
With over $315 billion in daily trading volume, stablecoins have become the systemic plumbing of programmable finance. Yet, the Basel Committee (BIS) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) highlight a critical flaw: the lack of quantitative tools capable of measuring counterparty risk in real time. Traditional approaches rely on static snapshots (monthly attestations)…
The on-chain and behavioral analysis of XRP highlights a sustained accumulation dynamic supported by various actors. Cohort analysis shows that Mega Whales (>10M XRP, 18% of supply) maintain a silent accumulation (Neutral → Bullish signal), while Whales (1M-10M XRP, 22%) are actively accumulating.
Institutions (100K-1M XRP, 25%) are in post-SEC consolidation (Neutral), and Sharks…
Sur la période étudiée, le Bitcoin a transité d'un régime de Low Volatility Accumulation (~$88,800) vers un scénario de Crisis Deleveraging, touchant un support technique majeur à ~$66,700, soit un drawdown de -24.8%. L’analyse de l’Order Flow révèle une prédominance du Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) négatif, confirmant que la baisse n'est pas une simple correction…
1. RÉSUMÉ EXÉCUTIF
L'année 2026 représente un tournant majeur pour les actifs numériques avec la finalisation des cadres réglementaires clés (MiCA, GENIUS Act) et l'application uniforme des règles mondiales (OCDE CARF, FATF Travel Rule). Cela engendre un système régulatoire dual : les juridictions matures (UE, UK, etc.) passent à une surveillance continue, avec un risque…
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