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Private credit funds face elevated risks in 2026 from two distinct but overlapping AI-related channels

Private credit funds face significant 2026 risks from two AI-related channels: disruption to software borrowers and demand shortfalls in AI infrastructure. These are compounded by liquidity mismatches, sector concentration, and ties to insurers and pensions. Non-bank direct lending, via vehicles like BDCs, has heavily expanded into both areas, heightening vulnerability. Two Primary AI-Related Risk…

34 minutes ago0Comments

ByOleg Turceac

The correlation of AI in the credit architecture

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. QUANTITATIVE FINANCE Contagion in AI financing cannot be understood through valuation levels or even growth rates. It is grasped through the counterparty dependency structure and the second derivative of infrastructure spending. Our cross-analysis shows: ¤ The central risk is not the disappearance of AI demand, but the existence of a…

3 hours ago0Comments

ByOleg Turceac

SSSI. The quantitative and microstructural architecture of stablecoin risk

Executive Summary With over $315 billion in daily trading volume, stablecoins have become the systemic plumbing of programmable finance. Yet, the Basel Committee (BIS) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) highlight a critical flaw: the lack of quantitative tools capable of measuring counterparty risk in real time. Traditional approaches rely on static snapshots (monthly attestations)…

16 hours ago0Comments

ByOleg Turceac