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Tag: TotalEnergies

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Detailed view of an industrial plumbing system featuring multiple pressure gauges and steel pipes.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) in the Context of European Disengagement from Russian Oil/Gas and Global Oil Demand Reduction: Quantitative Strategic Assessment

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) — a 4,128 km project linking Nigerian gas fields (Warri region) through Niger to Algeria’s Hassi R’Mel hub, with onward connection to European markets via existing Algerian infrastructure — represents a geostrategic diversification play for Europe amid categorical reduction of Russian fossil fuel dependence (oil imports down to <3-5% of…
juin 12, 20260Comments

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Industrial plant with reflection in water at twilight, showing smoke stacks and lights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
juin 12, 20260Comments

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Aerial view of illuminated night-time city highways with dynamic light trails and bustling traffic.
DécarbonisationDécarbonisation

Transition Risks and Fuel Demand Reduction: Attribution to 15-Minute Smart Cities, Localized Smart Digitalized & Decarbonized Economies

Executive Summary Reduction in refined fuel demand (gasoline/diesel) is primarily driven by electrification (EV penetration ~25% global new sales 2025, displacing ~1.2 mb/d oil equivalent), efficiency gains (MPG improvements offsetting VMT growth), and behavioral shifts, not dominantly by 15-minute city models. The 15-minute city (proximity-based urbanism) and smart digitalized local economies contribute secondarily via…
juin 12, 20260Comments

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Aerial landscape shot of a coastal oil refinery with storage silos under cloudy skies.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
juin 12, 20260Comments

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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
juin 11, 20260Comments

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Chroniques juridiques

Analyse technique de l’optimisation fiscale de TotalEnergies via sa filiale de trading à Genève. Application des principes de pleine concurrence (arm’s length principle)

Notre analyse multi-modèles appliquée aux données publiques confirme que TotalEnergies utilise une architecture complexe d’optimisation fiscale via sa filiale de trading à Genève. La catégorie "reste du monde" dans ses rapports fiscaux agit comme une variable proxy pour des juridictions à fiscalité réduite, principalement la Suisse. Les travaux empiriques de l’Institut de Genève ont démontré…
avril 20, 20260Comments

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EconomieEconomie Etudes et réportages

Pénalités logistiques : la nouvelle sanction de l’UE sur le pétrole raffiné russe contraint les pétroliers à naviguer en lest. Traçabilité du brut russe : les experts divisés sur l’impact réel de l’embargo de l’UE sur les tarifs de fret

L'interdiction par l'Union européenne d'importer des produits pétroliers d'origine russe, y compris ceux raffinés hors de Russie depuis le 21 janvier (suite à la 18e série de sanctions adoptée en juillet 2025), force les transporteurs à modifier leurs schémas logistiques. Auparavant, les pétroliers transportant des produits russes pouvaient se recharger en Inde ou dans d'autres…
février 6, 20260Comments

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