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IA Supercycle CapEx. Stochastic Regime Modeling, Real Options Valuation, and Material Supply Chain Disruption

The statement by the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, that AI-related infrastructure now captures more than 10% of global merchandise trade, and that global AI investment (as a % of GDP) will reach and likely exceed historically allocated levels for railways, power grids, and telecommunications, marks a macroeconomic regime shift of a magnitude equivalent to…

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Crypto Macro and Microstructure Regime: Compression Analysis (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ZEC)

The paradigm has shifted. Digital assets no longer react like call options on technological adoption but rather as long-duration derivatives hyper-sensitive to real interest rates. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fracturing the 5.27% barrier in early October 2026, the negative correlation between crypto Beta and yields dictates the entire market microstructure. This www.steelldy-indices.com note…

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ESG, European taxonomy & carbon: the simplification that creates the quality premium

The Omnibus package reduces the reporting scope but mechanically increases the published alignment ratios, a comparability risk for investors. Symmetrically, the voluntary carbon market is completing its bifurcation: CCP-labelled credits with a quality premium (25%) vs a high-risk legacy stock. Verifiable quality becomes an asset class. Key Data • Omnibus I (Directive (EU) 2026/470,…

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AI, MANBRIC/Biotech, Robotics & Smart Cities: the physical capex supercycle

The "AI bubble" debate is secondary; what is observable is the largest private investment cycle in modern history, whose spillover effects ripple across energy, industrial real estate, semiconductors, robotics, and cities. The supercycle figures. The five major hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) will commit $660-725 billion in capex by 2026, nearly double that of…

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