Analyse de marché
After reaching an all-time high in January 2026, gold prices continued to decline during the first half of the year, raising investor concerns about further drops and whether it is an opportune time to buy.
While short-term forecasts are uncertain, analysts are more confident in predicting gold’s long-term trajectory, citing strong fundamentals despite temporary macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
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In 2026, gold hit a historic peak of $5,600 by late January, then traded narrowly before a major sell-off in mid-March pushed prices below $4,400. A slight rebound in April gave way to a gradual decline to around $4,100 by early June, marking a drop of over 25% from the January high. However, this weakness may obscure a broader uptrend, as spot prices remain near early-2026 levels and far exceed pre-rally figures, indicating a resilient long-term upward trend.
The recent decline is attributed to several factors. Profit-taking after the rally saw short-term traders cashing in, which, while creating selling pressure, leaves a healthier base of long-term investors.
A strengthening US dollar, up about 10% from early 2026 lows due to higher interest rates and rising oil prices, makes gold costlier for foreign investors.
Rising expectations of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market, have increased Treasury yields, competing with gold demand.
Additionally, liquidity pressures from the US-Iran war and subsequent oil crisis prompted some governments to reduce gold reserves to stabilize currencies, temporarily lowering central bank demand.
Historical data offers perspective. During the 1970s bull market, gold saw multiple corrections exceeding 20%, including a 45% drop from 1975-1976, before rallying over 2300%.
In the 2008 financial crisis, gold fell 30% from March to November 2008, only to recover and hit a then-record $1,920 by 2011.
Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, gold dropped 13% in ten days but rebounded to a record $2,060 by August.
For gold to fall further, key scenarios include the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates longer due to persistent inflation, which would support Treasury yields and the dollar.
However, most analysts expect at least one rate cut in the second half of 2026.
Another risk is a resilient economy, as a boom could divert capital from safe-haven assets like gold to growth-oriented investments, though many still see a high risk of U.S. recession or broader economic downturn.
