Analyse de marché
Société Générale projects a more moderate pace of gold purchases by central banks in the future. While central bank demand has been a key driver of gold’s multi-year rise to an all-time high of $5,600, and a recent World Gold Council survey indicates continued official sector buying, one bank adopts a cautious stance, warning that stated intentions do not always translate into actual purchases.
This year, a record 79 central banks participated in the World Gold Council survey. Among respondents, 89% of reserve managers anticipate an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to boost reserves, up from 43% in 2025. Despite this optimism, Société Générale’s commodity market analysts note that ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and disruptions in global energy markets have created significant hurdles for central bank reserve managers.
They argue that until the conflict is resolved and energy markets stabilize, central banks will likely prioritize issues other than buying physical gold. However, they add that even in this uncertain environment, there remains an opportunity for central banks to increase their gold purchases. To gain a clearer picture of central bank gold demand relative to survey results, SocGen prefers to assess respondents’ intentions over a six-month period rather than a full year, as central banks generally have a clearer view of short-term portfolio positioning. Based on this methodology, they estimate central banks will purchase between 100 and 120 metric tons of gold for the remainder of the year, roughly double the volume recorded in the first four months, aligning with their overall forecast of a resumption in central bank buying.
SocGen notes that its current forecast aligns with UK trade data and LBMA gold stock data, which indicate a clear acceleration in export activity. Total gold exports from the UK reached 35 metric tons in April, up from 13 tons in March. China continues to dominate these flows, accounting for the bulk of shipments, with exports to China totaling 25 tons in April, well above both the 2022 and 2015 averages.
Meanwhile, LBMA vault data supports the rise in export activity, suggesting a significant improvement in underlying central bank demand. While central bank demand is expected to remain robust through year-end, SocGen states that investment demand will largely be driven by the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal. In their central scenario, they assume US 10-year real yields will remain above 2% through Q3, then gradually decline late in the year and into H1 2027. This justifies a neutral stance during summer, with potential for a more constructive outlook later in the year as the opportunity cost of holding gold begins to decrease.
