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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
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Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
06/11/20260Comments

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Oil Market Faces Billion-Barrel Deficit Amid Strait Crisis, Reserves Struggle to Compensate

Estimated losses in the oil market reached 800 million barrels in March-April, growing to 1 billion barrels by mid-May, according to the IEA. This compares to a cumulative intervention of 400 million barrels, including the US. Before the conflict, global observable reserves in February stood at 8,185 million barrels; however, a significant portion is operational,…
05/14/20260Comments

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The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage. The three pillars of the breakdown: (a) Physical Pillar. The Strait of Hormuz has been practically blocked since February 28, 2026: more than 20% of global oil traffic and 25% of…
05/04/20260Comments

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Hormuz Truce Fails to Quell Fuel Fears: IATA Warns of Months-Long Supply Snag

IATA chief says jet fuel supply could take months to recover after Hormuz reopening https://t.co/0KqLSqjPPM pic.twitter.com/H0qhi64avY — Alma Angeles (@AlmaANET25) April 8, 2026 IATA Director General Willie Walsh warning that jet fuel supply restoration in the Middle East will require months even after Strait of Hormuz reopening, due to major refining capacity damage. The statement follows…
04/11/20260Comments

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De Facto Tolls Solidify: Iran Moves to Formalize Strait of Hormuz Fees and Transit Bans

The Brent oil market shows an extreme divergence between the paper price (futures contracts) at $109 and the physical price (spot) at $141, a $32 gap reflecting a strong "backwardation." Normally, future prices are higher than spot prices (contango) due to storage costs; this inversion signals an immediate scarcity of physical oil. The $141 price…
04/04/20260Comments

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