Analyse de marché
According to precious metals market analysts at Heraeus, gold and silver prices are expected to rise soon due to declining oil prices, which ease inflation expectations and reduce bond yields, while developments in the Pacific region suggest a potential shift of the gold market’s center of gravity to the East. In their latest review, analysts noted that precious metal prices remain under pressure amid a renewed strengthening of the US dollar.
Last week, gold fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025, as the market continues to price in a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. The estimated probability of a rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting hovers around 35%, up from less than 10% before last week’s meeting. This likelihood has boosted the dollar, which rose to its highest level since May 2025.
The US Dollar Index climbed above 101.5 after hitting a 52-week low just above 95.5 during the peak of precious metal prices earlier this year. While a stronger dollar does not always mean weaker precious metal prices, the same macroeconomic factors often influence both, and a stronger dollar also makes precious metals more expensive for non-dollar buyers.
Meanwhile, China’s gold imports hit a two-year high last month. In May, China imported 162.6 tonnes of gold, a 63% increase from May 2025 (99.5 tonnes). Year-to-date imports stand at 691.6 tonnes, up 76% from 393.6 tonnes in the same period last year, though still below the 840.6 tonnes imported during the same period in 2024. This is driven by strong demand for physical bullion and gold accumulation programs where retail investors can buy gold through small monthly contributions.
Despite higher imports, wholesale demand fell 36% year-on-year, making May the weakest since 2010, as jewelers delayed purchases due to recent gold price drops. Banks in Hong Kong are also building up gold inventories ahead of the launch of a widely publicized clearing system next month. At least 4 of the 11 banks participating in the planned Hong Kong gold clearing system are importing 400-ounce London Good Delivery gold bars in anticipation of the July launch. This move underscores both Hong Kong’s ambition to strengthen its role as a regional precious metals hub and Asia’s growing importance in global precious metal markets, preceding Singapore’s plans to open its own gold clearing mechanism later this year.
In May 2026, the Hong Kong government set a target to achieve over 2,000 tonnes of gold storage within three years, encouraging the Airport Authority and financial institutions to expand vaults, highlighting the potential size of the precious metals market. Gold traded near its intraday low on Monday morning, hitting $4,035.33, down 1.30% from session start.
Heraeus analysts noted that silver prices also continued to fall after the last Fed meeting. Silver dropped below $60 for the first time since December 2025, now below a key support level near $61 per ounce. This occurs amid expectations that the US PCE index will rise 4.1% year-on-year, up from 3.8% last month and still well above the Fed’s 2% target.
However, falling oil prices are likely to lower inflation expectations, potentially reviving the precious metals market. Oil prices have returned to near pre-war levels, with Brent crude falling below $75 per barrel, after spending most of the conflict above $100. If no further strait closures occur, lower oil prices will begin to affect producers and consumers. If the PCE index falls along with other indicators, the probability of interest rate hikes will also decrease, enhancing the investment appeal of precious metals. Silver prices recovered from earlier lows and traded near the middle of its daily range on Monday morning. At the time of writing, silver traded around $58.187 per ounce, down 1.69% on the daily chart.
