Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle appear to have recently consolidated control over Iran’s military response and negotiating strategy concerning the United States, evidenced by the IRGC Navy attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and declaring it closed to all traffic.
This action directly contradicted the Iranian Foreign Minister’s announcement the previous day that the strait was open, suggesting that political leaders currently negotiating with the US lack autonomy over Iran’s bargaining positions, having possibly been sidelined by more hardline figures within the IRGC.
IRGC-affiliated media also stated Iran would not resume talks with the US due to « excessive » American demands. This hardening of the Iranian position is likely a dual-purpose maneuver: an external attempt to gain leverage over the US by disrupting shipping and driving up oil prices, and an internal display of the IRGC’s power and control over crucial foreign policy decisions, including negotiations that Vahidi seemingly sought to influence even prior to recent US-Iran talks in Islamabad.
Meanwhile, the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports remains active, having forced 23 vessels to turn back between April 17 and 18, with no Iranian ships challenging the blockade line as of the latest reports. Overall, Vahidi’s circle has seized temporary command of military and negotiation fronts in the past 48 hours, pushing aside pragmatic political elements.
