Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle appear to have recently consolidated control over Iran's military response and negotiating strategy concerning the United States, evidenced by the IRGC Navy attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and declaring it closed to all traffic. …
Multi-engine analysis suggests that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a supply shock of 20 Mb/d (20% of world consumption), has established a regime of "structural energy constraint." This regime is characterized by a high conditional probability of activating restrictive measures on mobility ("energy lockdown"), estimated at 81.3% for 03/31/26, according to…
The US Treasury issued a temporary waiver on restrictions for certain stranded Russian oil shipments, announced around March 12-13, 2026, to address global supply disruptions amid escalating tensions with Iran.
This 30-day exemption allows countries to purchase and transport Russian crude and petroleum products that were loaded onto ships as of March 12, 2026, with…
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