Executive Summary
Reduction in refined fuel demand (gasoline/diesel) is primarily driven by electrification (EV penetration ~25% global new sales 2025, displacing ~1.2 mb/d oil equivalent), efficiency gains (MPG improvements offsetting VMT growth), and behavioral shifts, not dominantly by 15-minute city models. The 15-minute city (proximity-based urbanism) and smart digitalized local economies contribute secondarily via…
Décarbonisation
1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing
TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow price in its project evaluations and asset impairment testing. Currently, its base case includes a minimum price of $100/tCO₂ (or higher jurisdictional prices) starting in 2023, with a 2% annual increase after 2030.
Sensitivity…
1.1 Proprietary Multidimensional Benchmark Evaluating the Integrity, Durability, and Liquidity of Carbon Credits
The Climate Credit Quality Index (CCQI) developed by STEELLDY is a next-generation proprietary benchmark specifically designed to address the transparency and standardization gaps characterizing the voluntary carbon credit market. Unlike traditional indices, which are limited to price aggregations or transaction volumes, the…
1.1 Replicating Carbon Price Exposure Without Physical Holding of Credits
Synthetic tokens offer exposure to carbon credit prices without requiring the physical holding of the underlying credits, by using derivative mechanisms such as futures contracts, total return swaps, or price oracles that replicate the performance of a carbon market benchmark index. This structure offers advantages…
1.1 Collective Structuring and Pooling of Heterogeneous Quality Carbon Credits
Pool tokens represent a stake in a collective portfolio of carbon credits with heterogeneous characteristics, structured as a mutual fund or a collective investment vehicle. This form of tokenization allows for the pooling of risks specific to each carbon credit and offers increased liquidity compared…
1.1 Direct Ownership Tokens
1.1.1 On-chain Representation of Carbon Credits Held in Custody by the Investor
Direct ownership tokens constitute the most fundamental form of carbon credit tokenization, representing a digital claim on a physical carbon credit held in custody by an accredited custodian. This structure ensures a one-to-one correspondence between the issued token and…
1.1 Exclusion of Tokenized Carbon Credits from the Substance-Based Carve-Out (SBCO)
The Substance-Based Carve-Out (SBCO), also referred to as the Substance-Based Income Exclusion (SBIE), is one of Pillar Two's key mechanisms for preserving the attractiveness of productive investments. It allows a portion of the GloBE income subject to tax to be excluded from the calculation,…
The Core Carbon Principles (CCP), established by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM), constitute the most stringent quality benchmark in the carbon market. CCP-qualified credits must satisfy three fundamental criteria: additionality (the emission reductions would not have occurred without the financial incentive of the carbon credit), permanence (the reductions are irreversible over…
The tokenization of carbon credits is based on a layered technological architecture that ensures interoperability between traditional carbon credit registries and blockchain infrastructures. The typical protocol involves: (i) the verification and custody of carbon credits in a traditional registry account; (ii) the issuance of representative tokens on a public or permissioned blockchain, with a 1:1…
The widespread implementation of OECD Pillar Two (GloBE rules) starting in fiscal year 2024-2025 fundamentally alters the economics of tokenized carbon credit investment. This analysis, based on quantitative modeling and international tax doctrine, demonstrates three key effects: Pillar Two erodes the tax value of tokenized carbon credits by neutralizing non-refundable tax credits and ESG incentives…
Transition énergétique