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Etudes et réportages

Strait of Hormuz Showdown: Vahidi’s IRGC Undermines Diplomatic Overtures to US

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle appear to have recently consolidated control over Iran's military response and negotiating strategy concerning the United States, evidenced by the IRGC Navy attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 and declaring it closed to all traffic. …
3 heures ago0Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil and Gas Infrastructure Impact. Recession Risks through H2 2026

A JP Morgan Commodities Research table listing specific oil and gas assets hit across the Middle East, including pipelines, terminals, ports, depots, and fields in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, and Oman. The table details drone strikes, missile attacks, and fires causing capacity outages, with examples like partial shutdowns at Saudi East-West pipeline, full disruptions…
avril 11, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Explication détaillée du calcul de l’impact du taux de change EUR/USD sur le prix du gazole

L'impact chiffré de €0,08/L attribué à l'effet de change dans notre étude du 2 avril 2026 se réfère à la période de référence 27 février 2026 (pré-crise, T-35 jours) au 1er avril 2026 (T). Ce calcul repose sur une décomposition rigoureuse des composantes du prix à la pompe, isolant la variation du taux de change EUR/USD toutes choses…
avril 3, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Modeling the Systemic Consequences of a U.S. Ground Intervention in Iran (Post-March 23-28, 2026)

The integration of our analytical data and market signals into our Steelldy-Gotham architecture reveals an imminent regime shift. The US ground intervention in Iran, following the failure of negotiations (March 23-28, 2026), is not a simple military event. It is the final detonator that: (a) Permanently closes the Iranian “Shadow Loop”: Iranian energy credits…
mars 24, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché Uncategorized

Deep Markov Modeling of the Transition to DePIN as an Absorbing State in the Dexter Pyramid 2.0

THE ABSORBING STATE THEOREM DePIN The integration of our models confirms, with a statistical certainty of 99.4%, that DePIN (BitTensor/TAO, Render/RNDR, Filecoin/FIL, Akash/AKT, Helium/HNT) constitutes the absorbing state of the Exter Pyramid 2.0. In the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) calibrated on the flows of March 17-24, 2026: ¤ Probability of…
mars 24, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Diagnostic de convergence du Brent vers le seuil de 85,00 USD. Analyse de la backwardation extrême et de l’équilibre de long terme (horizon 12M).

1. Modélisation quantitative de la crise Ormuz Qsupply(t)=Q0⋅[1−Φ(σshockt−tshock)]+Qalternative⋅1[t>tresponse]Qsupply(t)=Q0⋅[1−Φ(σshockt−tshock)]+Qalternative⋅1[t>tresponse] Notre modèle quantitatif de la crise de l'Hormuz simule la dynamique de choc d'offre avec une formule adaptant le pic de Hubbert, où Q 0 est le flux normal (21.5 Mb/j), t shock le début de crise (2 mars 2026), sigma shock la vitesse de disruption…
mars 9, 20260Comments

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