Analyse de marché
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Gold is currently a structurally important asset. Although the gold market may be consolidating around $4,000, one market strategist believes investors should focus less on short-term price fluctuations and more on gold’s evolving role in the global financial system. Robert Minter, director of investment strategy at Abrdn, said the recent correction had little impact on gold’s long-term investment appeal. Instead, liquidation has largely eliminated speculative excess, leaving the strongest sources of demand untouched. He views this removal of speculative excess as positive, noting that recent weakness reflects technical factors rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
Minter pointed to China’s tightening of controls on leveraged precious metals trading, the closing of speculative positions, and shifts in retail investment flows as factors pressuring prices. While creating short-term volatility, these have left the market healthier. More importantly, gold now occupies a completely different position in the global financial system than a few years ago, becoming an even more important structural asset. This is supported by sustained central bank demand; for instance, the People’s Bank of China recently added 15 tons of gold to its reserves during the correction.
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Many professional investors see prices around $4,000 as an opportunity to increase holdings. Minter also questioned the increasingly hawkish interpretation of U.S. monetary policy, arguing that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is not truly hawkish, despite his rhetoric. Warsh has adopted a tougher tone to build credibility for anti-inflation policy while rewriting the Fed’s policy framework, abandoning many traditional indicators. This reflects recognition that traditional models no longer adequately capture an economy shaped by slowing population growth, changing labor market dynamics, and evolving inflationary pressures.
Minter stated that many advisors and institutional investors remain unconvinced that significantly tighter monetary policy is inevitable, with ETF investors showing skepticism too. Instead of focusing on inflation reports or interest rate hike timings, investors should pay more attention to the long-term trajectory of government debt and global currencies. He views currency risk as the main market risk, emphasizing that gold remains the only currency that is not someone else’s liability, and no government is pursuing policies to reduce public debt. With debt burdens expected to keep rising in developed economies and central banks continuing to diversify reserves, gold’s role has shifted from a traditional inflation hedge to a core monetary asset. Investors looking beyond the current consolidation understand that the long-term bull market has experienced little fundamental change.
