Analyse de marché
Following the restructuring of Altice France (SFR Group), effective October 1, 2025 (Q3 2025 pro forma presentation), consolidated net debt stands at €16,027 million, with gross debt at €16,569 million. The weighted average cost of debt is 7.125% for AF S.A. (which bears approximately 95% of the debt) and 9.125% for Altice France Lux 3 (HoldCo). The weighted average life (WAL) is 5.4 years, with no major maturities before 2029. The principal repayment profile shows gradual drawdowns until 2028 (€2.56 million in 2026 up to €4.74 million in 2028), followed by a significant maturity wall of €3.87 million in 2029 and €0.81 million in 2030. Maturities then extend without significant amounts until 2033, thanks to new issuances. The estimation of debt service cash flows relies on an overall weighted average interest rate of about 7.3%, with principal repayments without progressive amortization (bullet bonds). Annual interest stabilizes around €700-€750 million after 2030. Total debt service peaks in 2028 (€5.820 million) and 2029 (€4.820 million), these amounts including the high principal repayments due to extended maturities. This restructuring generates annual interest savings of approximately €400 million compared to the old structure, through debt reduction of €9 billion and maturity extension. Pro forma liquidity at the end of Q3 2025 is €540 million, maintaining a net leverage of 5.1x (on L2QA EBITDA). The company anticipates generating operating Free Cash Flow and/or asset disposals (e.g., Infracos) to refinance or repay the 2028-2029 service peaks. Bondholders observe semi-annual coupon payments until the principal maturity in « bullet. »
1. XS3161792406 – Altice France S.A. 4.75% 10/15/2030 EUR (Reg S)
Issued amount: €770 M (outstanding ≈ €762 M according to some sources)
Annual coupon: 4.75% → €2.375 per €100 nominal (semi-annual)
Payment dates: April 15 and October 15 (first coupon 04/15/2026)
Maturity: 10/15/2030 (principal repaid in bullet)
- /10/2030 (principal remboursé en bullet)
| Payment Date | Coupon (€ per 100 € nominal) | Principal (€ par 100 €) | Total cash-flow (€ per 100 €) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/10/2026 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/04/2027 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/10/2027 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/04/2028 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/10/2028 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/04/2029 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/10/2029 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/04/2030 | 2,375 | 0 | 2,375 |
| 15/10/2030 | 2,375 | 100 | 102,375 |
Total coupons paid over the life of the bond: €23.75 per €100 (10 payments).
2. USL0183LAA72 – Altice France Lux 3 10.00% 01/15/2033 USD (Reg S)
Amount ≈ $948–956 M (USD equivalent coupon targeting 9.125% EUR)
Annual coupon: 10.00% → $5.00 per $100 nominal (semi-annual)
Payment dates: January 15 and July 15 (confirmed by previous payment 01/15/2026)
Maturity: 01/15/2033 (bullet principal)
| Payment Date | Coupon ($ par 100 $ nominal) | Principal ($ par 100 $) | Total cash-flow ($ par 100 $) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2026 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2027 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/07/2027 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2028 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/07/2028 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2029 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/07/2029 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2030 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/07/2030 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2031 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/07/2031 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2032 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/07/2032 | 5,00 | 0 | 5,00 |
| 15/01/2033 | 5,00 | 100 | 105,00 |
Total coupons paid: $70 per $100 (14 payments).
Simple projection with FCF / EBITDA scenarios (based on official Q3 2025 data)
Altice France Data Q3 2025 (post-restructuring):
¤ L2QA Annualized EBITDA: €3,130 million Gross debt: €16,569 million
¤ Weighted average cost of debt: ≈ 7.3% (7.125% on AF S.A. + 9.125% on Lux 3) → estimated annual interest ≈ €1,210 million
¤ Typical increased Capex: ≈ €1,500 million / year (Q3 annualized)
¤ Pro forma liquidity: €540 million Annual scenarios (2026-2030, in € million, simplified)
Annual scenarios (2026-2030, in €M, simplified)
| Scenario | Annual EBITDA | Interest | Capex | Estimated CFFO (before taxes/WC) | Debt coverage (EBITDA / interest) | Comment (Arini risk) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (L2QA) | 3 130 | 1 210 | 1 500 | +420 | 2,59x | According to current guidance |
| Downside -15 % | 2 660 | 1 210 | 1 500 | -50 | 2,20x | Narrow margin → risk of margin calls |
| Upside +10 % | 3 443 | 1 210 | 1 500 | +733 | 2,85x | Rapid deleveraging possible |
Interpretation for Arini:
In the base scenario, debt service is largely covered.
In the downside scenario (recession or failure of Infracos/Intelcia disposals), OpFCF becomes negative → pressure on covenants and stressed refinancing risk (exactly the « prone to backfiring » mentioned by the WSJ).
The large maturity walls of 2028-2029 (€4.74 + €3.87 billion) coincide with Arini’s Altice positions.
Altice France Q3 2025 Presentation (November 26, 2025, post-restructuring effective October 1, 2025).
Consolidated gross debt: €15,755 M (AF S.A. + LuxCo 3).
Pro forma net debt: €16,027 M. Weighted average cost of debt: 7.125% (AF S.A.) / 9.125% (LuxCo 3) → 7.3% overall weighted.
Reference LTM EBITDA: €3,130 M (net leverage 5.1x).
Cash flows per ISIN (XS3161792406 and USL0183LAA72) remain fixed (semi-annual coupons + bullet principal) and are independent of EBITDA.
« Detailed Debt Amortization » with precise amortization (year by year, opening/closing debt, repayments, interest, OCFS, etc.).
All data comes directly from the official Altice France Q3 2025 presentation (Nov 26, 2025, slide 7):
Pro forma consolidated gross debt: €15,755 M (AF S.A. + LuxCo 3).
Exact maturity profile (principal repayments):
2025: €0.92 billion
2026: €2.56 billion
2027: €2.69 billion
2028: €4.74 billion
2029: €3.87 billion
2030: €0.81 billion Weighted average cost: 7.3% (as previously stated).
The new bonds (e.g., XS3161792406 and USL0183LAA72) are bullet (no gradual amortization before maturity).
For Arini (leverage vulnerability), 2028-2029 are high repayment peaks. The base case scenario allows for easy refinancing due to positive operating cash flows. However, a 15% drop in EBITDA could lead to near-zero cash flows, risking a covenant breach and pressure on bondholders (Arini included). Their « bullet » positions make the market value very sensitive to future refinancing capability.
