Carbon Credit Market
Thesis. The European Omnibus did not kill ESG: it transformed it from a mass legal obligation into a competitive market advantage. Demand for reliable ESG data is shifting from the regulator to the investor, the bank, and the buyer and ESG ratings themselves are now under supervision.
The new regime (Directive (EU) 2026/470, in force since 18/03/2026).
CSRD: threshold >1,000 employees AND >€450M net revenue ~80% of initially targeted companies fall out of scope; listed SMEs excluded; non-EU: >€450M EU revenue (FY28). CSDDD: >5,000 employees AND >€1.5bn, application delayed to 2029, cap on sanctions at 3% of global turnover, no harmonized civil liability regime.
Simplified ESRS: -60% to -70% of datapoints, adoption targeted for mid-2026, assurance standard postponed to 1 July 2027.
Taxonomy: automatically aligned with the new CSRD scope. Counter-current: Regulation (EU) 2024/3005 on ESG rating agencies has been applicable since 2 July 2026, supervision of ratings; EUDR (deforestation) applicable from 30/12/2026 for large operators.
Market reading. Pressure becomes private: value chains (large companies will continue to require data from their suppliers via the voluntary VSME standard), finance (banks’ GAR, SFDR), and buyers. Scarcity shifts: what is lacking is no longer the declaration, but continuous, comparable, and verifiable ESG data including on-chain (tokenized carbon, ETACI index).
Allocation implication. Companies that maintain quality reporting despite falling out of scope will retain a cost-of-capital advantage; monitor the EU/US regulatory arbitrage. For asset managers: regulated ESG ratings become an auditable input, integrate near-real-time compliance indices rather than annual reports.
Verdict: POSITIVE on ESG data infrastructure (ratings, continuous measurement, quality carbon); the “end of ESG” is a misunderstanding of the political cycle, not a fundamental trend.
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