Analyse de marché
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The silver deficit is intensifying, with demand exceeding supply for the sixth consecutive year. According to the Silver Institute, the global market is expected to face a supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, bringing the total deficit since 2021 to a staggering 762.1 million ounces. This persistent shortage is notable despite a predicted decline in global demand, primarily due to stagnating mine production and slowing recycling rates.
The deficit is becoming structural rather than cyclical, raising concerns about the market’s ability to respond to sudden demand surges. In 2026, the supply deficit is forecast at 46.3 million ounces, down from peaks in 2022 and 2023, but it marks six consecutive years of imbalance. Over this period, the cumulative deficit totals 762.1 million ounces (about 23,705 metric tons). For context, total silver market volume ranged from 157.2 million ounces in 2017 to 337.6 million ounces in 2022. The deficit means the market must rely on above-ground inventories, straining reserves as more physical silver is tied up in supply chains, exchange-traded products, and private investments.
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The persistent shortage stems from limited natural availability, mining complexities, and recycling challenges. Mine production, which provides 75-80% of silver supply, shows sluggish growth. From 2024 to 2025, output rose only 3% to 846.6 million ounces, with a projected decline to 844.1 million ounces in 2026. Over the past decade, production fell 6.2% from 900 million ounces in 2016. Obstacles include lengthy permitting, declining ore grades, and high costs for new mines.
Additionally, only about 25% of silver comes from primary silver mines; nearly 75% is a byproduct of other metal mining, weakening the link between silver demand and mining activity. Recycling, which accounts for 15-25% of supply, is projected to increase 7% in 2026 to 211.3 million ounces, its highest since 2012, but still under 20% of total demand. High silver prices in 2025 prompted more conversion of jewelry and silverware into cash, but refining issues slowed processing.
Despite a slight decline in 2026, global demand remains above 1.1 billion ounces. Industrial applications dominate, with 57% (639.6 million ounces) of demand expected, though down 3% from 2025. Solar panel use is decreasing, but artificial intelligence, aerospace, electrical, automotive, and electronics sectors are boosting consumption. Investment demand is set to rise significantly, with silver coin and bar purchases up 18% to 257.6 million ounces, the highest since 2022, including a 57% increase from U.S. investors. This contrasts with industrial buyers limited by technical and budget cycles. Six years of deficit have reduced above-ground inventories, with a common misconception that these stocks are easily accessible. In reality, most silver is tied up in production chains, private holdings, or exchange-traded products.
By 2025, the gap between total stocks and available metal reached a critical point, leading to a liquidity crisis. On the London Bullion Market, about 225 million ounces were withdrawn from December 2024 to October 2025, moving to U.S. CME vaults. Meanwhile, physically backed silver ETFs locked up 83% of remaining stocks, leaving only 136 million ounces available despite daily spot trading averaging 450 million ounces.
This situation worsened with a wave of Indian buyers, triggering a short squeeze and rally that pushed silver to an all-time high above $121 per ounce in early 2026. The silver deficit extends beyond investment markets, directly affecting the U.S. In 2025, America was a major net importer of physical silver, with only 11% of consumption from domestic recycling and 77% from imports. In November 2025, the federal government added silver to its list of critical minerals, recognizing its role in national security, economic stability, supply chain resilience, and technology infrastructure. This designation highlights risks from the ongoing global shortage. While the deficit alone does not automatically drive prices higher, the entrenched six-year shortage reduces the market’s ability to absorb demand spikes, disproportionately boosting silver prices when buying surges.
