Bitcoin surged to $76,800-$77,600, gaining 6-8% in 24 hours and 20% for the week. The market saw over $4 billion in 24-hour liquidations, marking the most violent short squeeze of 2026. Combined BTC/ETH ETF inflows exceeded $800 million, indicating massive institutional entries. The funding rate shifted from negative to positive, signaling a return of long…
The thesis puts forward a five-part proposition: (i) the "vital energy" mentioned in the source text is formally isomorphic to the economic quantity of human attention, a scarce, allocable, measurable resource, as theorized by Herbert Simon (1971) and Michael Goldhaber (1997); (ii) this resource is captured by large corporations through a chain of signaling (Spence,…
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The silver deficit is intensifying, with demand exceeding supply for the sixth consecutive year. According to the Silver Institute, the global market is expected to face a supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, bringing the total deficit since 2021 to a staggering 762.1 million ounces. This persistent shortage is notable despite a…
https://www.steelldy-indices.com
The morning fixing of the 30-year French OAT yield at 4.6926% marks a "phase transition" market event. Cross-referenced with our proprietary risk engines, this level signals a critical threshold for French debt sustainability, with non-negligible probability of a self-fulfilling confidence crisis. Key findings: the 5-year implied probability of a French fiscal accident jumped from…
Recent news headlines have shifted as frequently as gold prices, leaving investors questioning market direction. A disconnect between record demand forecasts and sluggish price action adds to the confusion. Damian White and Joe Elkjer analyze the noise to clarify gold’s dynamics, examining whether the recent price decline is a warning or a pause in a…
This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings:
¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…
Gold is considered a tactical long-term asset, but Bitcoin is currently undervalued. ReSolve Asset Management's portfolio manager, Richard Latimer, notes that gold's current price consolidation is expected after its early-year surge. Despite strategically remaining bullish on gold for its structural bull market, ReSolve has become tactically neutral in the short term, having taken profits and…
The macroeconomic context of April 2026 is marked by persistent monetary uncertainty, with the 10-year US rate at 4.38% weighing on tech and crypto valuations. A strong dollar (DXY at 104.2) is draining liquidity from emerging and risky markets. The VIX, at 28.4 (+12%), signals a high but manageable risk premium. On the geopolitical front,…
I. État des lieux. L'Open Interest (OI) et le levier systémique
Depuis le 1er janvier 2026, l’Open Interest agrégé a chuté de 14 milliards $, signalant un unwinding (dénouement) massif des positions à effet de levier. Cependant, la stabilisation actuelle autour de $66,700 a favorisé une reconstruction rapide de positions Short agressives par des…
Le marché du Bitcoin, le 12 février 2026, évolue dans une configuration de "volatilité sans direction" (choppy volatility), oscillant violemment dans une fourchette étroite entre $66K et $68K. Le prix est à $66,602.60 (-0.70%), avec un volume de 11.52K BTC. Cette zone de marché, appelée "The Chop Zone" et survenant après une capitulation, est dominée…
Analyse de marché