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Silver (XAG) is undergoing a severe correction phase since its peak in January 2026 (~$120/oz) down to current levels of $58 (Western spot) and $64.79 (Shanghai). This 52% retracement reflects a conflict between strong physical fundamentals (green industrial demand, COMEX inventories under pressure) and macroeconomic headwinds (hawkish Fed, strong dollar, Iran ceasefire). Data…
The transmission mechanism Yen strength → USD/JPY depreciation → yen carry trade deleveraging → global liquidity contraction → BTC risk-asset beta spike (~2–3x) remains empirically robust. However, it is significantly attenuated following the BoJ’s fully delivered and well-telegraphed 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) on 16 June 2026.
Speculative net-short JPY positions elevated…
The announcement of a partnership between the DTCC and the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) for asset tokenization on Stellar by mid-2027 represents a major institutional event for a public blockchain. This partnership could include equities, ETFs, and US Treasury bonds. However, a detailed analysis reveals several points:
1. Solid but not exclusive fundamental thesis:…
Cohort-Normalized CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): Colored lines reveal that small orders ($100–$10K, green/orange lines) are buying on upward moves, while large blocks ($1M+, purple lines) are selling. Correlation with our April 27th statements : The April 27th post hypothesized a "stealth institutional distribution" in the $77,000–$80,000 range, with a negative delta of –699.51 and a…
Our multi-model analysis confirms a structural break in Private Credit (PC). The increase in rates on bank credit lines (warehouse lines) and downward revaluations of collateral by institutions like JPMorgan signal the end of the positive leverage multiplier effect ("Back Leverage"). This shift forces PC funds to face margin calls and liquidity dilution. The direct…
"The market is not content with betting on the end of the automobile; it is actively financing its replacement infrastructure."
The convergence of the following signals validates a macro-microstructure arbitrage thesis:
(a) Dark Pools (ATS): Since April 1, 2026, discreet accumulation of blocks >$10M in "Smart City" ETFs (GRN, CITIES), with an institutional buy/sell…
LE CASCADE QUANTIQUE ET LA MORT SUBITE DU SAFE HAVEN TRADITIONNEL
L’analyse microstructurelle des marchés sur les 7 derniers jours (17-24 mars 2026), corroborée par le chart Pepperstone XAU/USD 1D fourni (pic à 4 448,33 USD → chute brutale vers ~3 364 USD au plus bas intraday, volume spike 269,71 K lots, accumulation/distribution 39,48…
The integrated analysis of the Steelldy Risk Engine and Steelldy Gotham confirms that the USDC stablecoin has become the preferred vehicle for massive capital flight from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to three critical factors: the real estate collapse (a 31% drop), operational failures of local banks, and the regulatory superiority of USDC over…
Courte analyse de l'article de Laurent Maurel sur la montée du prix de l'or dans le contexte du ralentissement économique mondial.
L'année 2026 sera marquée par une récession synchrone des blocs économiques majeurs (US, Chine, Europe), détectée par nos modèles Steelldy, caractérisée par une contraction de la demande finale et une augmentation du risque de…
Notre modèle Steelldy signale un régime de marché extrême où les fondamentaux de risque sont baissiers, mais la dynamique des prix est haussière. Le signal technique est un extrême baissier (-91.5), anticipant un effondrement. Cependant, l'analyse on-chain et les flux institutionnels montrent une forte accumulation. Le marché est dans une "Bull Trap" préliminaire, alimentée par…
Analyse de marché