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Close-up view of the iconic United States Capitol dome with American flag in Washington, D.C.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Revaluation of official US gold, balance sheet monetization, and quantifiable implications

The US official gold reserves stand at 261,498,926 troy ounces (8,133.5 metric tons), valued at $42.2222 per ounce under the 1973 statute, totaling $11.041 billion. Market value at mid-July 2026 spot prices (~$4,050–4,130/oz) is approximately $1.06–1.08 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in July 2026 that all gold is accounted for, valuing over $1 trillion…
07/31/20260Comments

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Stock analysis workspace featuring charts, a calculator, and currency for data-driven insights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Decline of Sovereign Bonds as a Safe-Haven Asset and Rotation Toward Gold

Summary: Since 2021, the US bond market has experienced upward pressure on yields, with the stock-bond correlation turning positive. Several institutions (Morgan Stanley, Osaic, Sagard) have officially reduced their allocation to fixed income in favor of gold and real assets. This study models this regime change using a two-state HMM, GARCH volatility, and a Merton…
07/31/20260Comments

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Digital art showcasing a 3D abstraction of golden floating cubes with a soft blurred background.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold Projected to Reach $5,000

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Aakash Doshi (State Street) predicts that gold's next $1,000 move will be upward, with consolidation around $4,000 before expanding to $4,750–$5,500. This forecast aligns perfectly with our proprietary quantitative models. By integrating market data, institutional flows, and geopolitical signals through M. Theory 4.2 and leveraging Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 and Quantum-Classical Hybrid 1.0 on…
07/30/20260Comments

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A close-up image of various world coins in a pile, highlighting different currencies.
Economic studies Reports

War, Hidden Inflation, and the Role of Gold and Silver as Monetary Anchors

https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…
07/28/20260Comments

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Illuminated Türkiye İş Bankası building in Ankara, Türkiye at night with vehicle motion blur.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Geopolitical Pause Eases Sovereign Selling Pressure

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Current gold price is around $4,100-4,103/oz, with a neutral-to-bullish short-term stance but an intact seller regime risk. The divergence alert between the model and Polymarket is not triggered. Semantic NLP shows a "gold distrust" score of 0.48 (down from 0.62), with dominant themes being the Fed decision, US-Iran pause, oil easing, and PBOC purchases.…
07/27/20260Comments

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Cryptos Tech

BTC Price and 60 kUSD Breakout

Bitcoin price recently traded between 58-64 kUSD, with a low of ~58.5 kUSD on July 1 and recovery above 60-63 kUSD as of July 6, 2026. The price action around the psychological/resistance level of 60 kUSD is factual. Institutional accumulation saw whales (wallets with ≥1,000 BTC) accumulate ~270,000 BTC over 30 days in April-May 2026,…
07/06/20260Comments

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Smartphone displaying trading app with Bitcoin coins on a dark surface.
Cryptos

Bitcoin Struggles Near $66,000 Amidst Extreme Fear: What’s Next?

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) trades at approximately $65,400–66,000, down ~0.8% in the observed session, within a recent consolidation range post a relief bounce from sub-$60k lows earlier in June 2026. The provided chart confirms a 1H/4H structure with MA5/10/20 clustering near $66,200–66,300, recent rejection at $67,255 highs, and downside probe the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around…
06/17/20260Comments

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A dynamic image showcasing Bitcoin, credit cards, and financial apps for investment enthusiasts.
Cryptos

Construction of a Conditional Hedge via MNQ Micro E-mini Nasdaq Short. Calibration on BTC Beta=0.45

This study details an advanced quantitative modeling of a conditional hedge for a crypto-exposed portfolio, employing Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ) futures contracts as the hedging instrument. The calibration is based on a dynamic conditional beta of BTC/Nasdaq at 0.45, estimated using a multivariate DCC-GARCH(1,1) model with Markov regime switching. Key Findings: ¤ Minimum Variance Hedge…
06/06/20260Comments

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Economic studies

Hamza Lemssouguer, 35, is shaking up the London finance scene with his big short bets

Hamza Lemssouguer's Arini Capital fund, launched in 2022 with $1.3 billion and reaching $20 billion in assets under management, is highlighted for its focus on European distressed debt and high-yield credit refinancing for companies like Altice. Arini closed its flagship fund at $4 billion to maintain performance and is expanding into CLOs and private credit.…
04/17/20260Comments

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