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Tag: BIS

Aerial landscape shot of a coastal oil refinery with storage silos under cloudy skies.

BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…

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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…

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Construction of the Steelldy CCQI Index and Characterization of Carbon Credit Titles (TCC)

CCQI index and characterization of TCMs: Tracking Tokenization of RWAs and Carbon Credits 1.1 Methodology for the STEELLDY CCQI (Climate Credit Quality Index) 1.1.1 Definition and Objectives of the Index: Carbon Credit Quality Benchmark for the Voluntary Market The Climate Credit Quality Index (CCQI), developed by STEELLDY, is a proprietary benchmark for the quality of…

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Tokenization of carbon assets: blockchain protocols, on-chain traceability, and fractionalization

The tokenization of carbon credits is based on a layered technological architecture that ensures interoperability between traditional carbon credit registries and blockchain infrastructures. The typical protocol involves: (i) the verification and custody of carbon credits in a traditional registry account; (ii) the issuance of representative tokens on a public or permissioned blockchain, with a 1:1…

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Pillar Two’s Silent Killer: How GloBE Rules Decimate Tax Benefits for Tokenized Carbon Credits

The widespread implementation of OECD Pillar Two (GloBE rules) starting in fiscal year 2024-2025 fundamentally alters the economics of tokenized carbon credit investment. This analysis, based on quantitative modeling and international tax doctrine, demonstrates three key effects: Pillar Two erodes the tax value of tokenized carbon credits by neutralizing non-refundable tax credits and ESG incentives…

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Ray Dalio Ups Gold Allocation Forecast Amid Dollar Devaluation and Global Crisis Fears

Gold Is Moving Back to the Center of Finance By Peter Reagan Gold is reasserting itself in finance, moving from an "alternative asset" category to a core holding, driven by recent economic instability. Historically, institutional investors focused mainly on corporate profits and debt, viewing gold skeptically. However, the pandemic-era lockdowns, subsequent inflation, and the significant…

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Project Agorá: The Largest BIS Experiment Merging Tokenized Deposits and Wholesale CBDC

www.steelldy-indices.com Project Agorá, launched in April 2024 by the BIS Innovation Hub, is its largest public-private collaboration, testing a multi-currency unified ledger for wholesale cross-border payments. It builds on the BIS's "unified ledger" concept, exploring how tokenization and programmability can modernize correspondent banking without replacing the two-tier monetary system (commercial banks and central banks). …

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