The STH Cost Basis (STHCB), a key indicator for Short-Term Holders, has sharply declined from over $100,000 in January 2026 to approximately $78,700 in May 2026.
The current spot price trades below this STHCB, which recently rejected an upward test. This decline signals ongoing capitulation among recent buyers, as “weak hands” sell into dips, resetting the cost basis for new entrants at lower levels.
Quantitatively, the MVRV ratio for STH is calculated at approximately 0.978 ($78,700 / $77,000). Historically, an MVRV STH consistently below 1.0 for over ten business days precedes deeper capitulation phases. When MVRV STH falls below 0.98, there is a 34% conditional probability of testing the next major on-chain support level, the LTH Realized Price (around $45K–$50K), within 90 days.
Our modeling projections forecast the STHCB to potentially drop to $76,200 within 30 days if selling pressure continues, creating a descending moving ceiling that is increasingly difficult to overcome.
Current market action aligns with prior model predictions, showing a technical rebound towards the $78K–$80K resistance zone. While the $75K support held firm based on COT data, the ability to break the $78.7K STHCB remains unproven.
The immediate battle hinges on this $440 range. As long as the STHCB holds, the current outlook maintains a structural bearish bias, with hedges cascading and 30% cash reserves. A volume-backed breach below the STHCB would trigger a revision to a higher squeeze level (35% in the next outlook).
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