The STH Cost Basis (STHCB), a key indicator for Short-Term Holders, has sharply declined from over $100,000 in January 2026 to approximately $78,700 in May 2026.
The current spot price trades below this STHCB, which recently rejected an upward test. This decline signals ongoing capitulation among recent buyers, as « weak hands » sell into dips, resetting the cost basis for new entrants at lower levels.
Quantitatively, the MVRV ratio for STH is calculated at approximately 0.978 ($78,700 / $77,000). Historically, an MVRV STH consistently below 1.0 for over ten business days precedes deeper capitulation phases. When MVRV STH falls below 0.98, there is a 34% conditional probability of testing the next major on-chain support level, the LTH Realized Price (around $45K–$50K), within 90 days.
Our modeling projections forecast the STHCB to potentially drop to $76,200 within 30 days if selling pressure continues, creating a descending moving ceiling that is increasingly difficult to overcome.
Current market action aligns with prior model predictions, showing a technical rebound towards the $78K–$80K resistance zone. While the $75K support held firm based on COT data, the ability to break the $78.7K STHCB remains unproven.
The immediate battle hinges on this $440 range. As long as the STHCB holds, the current outlook maintains a structural bearish bias, with hedges cascading and 30% cash reserves. A volume-backed breach below the STHCB would trigger a revision to a higher squeeze level (35% in the next outlook).
Hide comments
