The STH Cost Basis (STHCB), a key indicator for Short-Term Holders, has sharply declined from over $100,000 in January 2026 to approximately $78,700 in May 2026. The current spot price trades below this STHCB, which recently rejected an upward test. This decline signals ongoing capitulation among recent buyers, as "weak hands" sell into dips, resetting…
A $20 premium puts #Saudi #oil above $130/barrel. More evidence of 2 oil markets - one for actual barrels of oil for refining into usable product. The other for paper barrels for trading & gov't propaganda, based on promises for future delivery. Same is true for #gold #silver. pic.twitter.com/2vNFGWP0bI — James Turk (@FGMR) April 6,…
DATE: March 6, 2026 | STATUS: CRITICAL / ABSOLUTE PRIORITY MODEL: Bayesian Inference & Mosaic Theory
The singularity of the "Triple Break"
Integrated analysis via Steelldy Risk Engine v.12.4 and Steelldy Gotham identifies that we are not in a conventional war cycle for gold. We are witnessing a rare convergence between:
(i)…
In our STEEL software, USDT is modeled as the first-tier systemic collateral in decentralized finance. A 10% contraction ($12 billion USD) is a negative convexity shock. Input variables include an initial USDT supply of $120 billion, a contraction speed at T+5 days (exogenous shock like a JPY Carry Trade unwind), an LIR < 0.22 (market…
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