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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Decline of Sovereign Bonds as a Safe-Haven Asset and Rotation Toward Gold

Summary: Since 2021, the US bond market has experienced upward pressure on yields, with the stock-bond correlation turning positive. Several institutions (Morgan Stanley, Osaic, Sagard) have officially reduced their allocation to fixed income in favor of gold and real assets. This study models this regime change using a two-state HMM, GARCH volatility, and a Merton…
07/31/20260Comments

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Digital art showcasing a 3D abstraction of golden floating cubes with a soft blurred background.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold Projected to Reach $5,000

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Aakash Doshi (State Street) predicts that gold's next $1,000 move will be upward, with consolidation around $4,000 before expanding to $4,750–$5,500. This forecast aligns perfectly with our proprietary quantitative models. By integrating market data, institutional flows, and geopolitical signals through M. Theory 4.2 and leveraging Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 and Quantum-Classical Hybrid 1.0 on…
07/30/20260Comments

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A close-up image of various world coins in a pile, highlighting different currencies.
Economic studies Reports

War, Hidden Inflation, and the Role of Gold and Silver as Monetary Anchors

https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…
07/28/20260Comments

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Illuminated Türkiye İş Bankası building in Ankara, Türkiye at night with vehicle motion blur.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Geopolitical Pause Eases Sovereign Selling Pressure

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Current gold price is around $4,100-4,103/oz, with a neutral-to-bullish short-term stance but an intact seller regime risk. The divergence alert between the model and Polymarket is not triggered. Semantic NLP shows a "gold distrust" score of 0.48 (down from 0.62), with dominant themes being the Fed decision, US-Iran pause, oil easing, and PBOC purchases.…
07/27/20260Comments

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Industrial plant with reflection in water at twilight, showing smoke stacks and lights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
06/12/20260Comments

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Oil Reserves Plummet: JPMorgan Warns of Looming Economic Shock as Global Buffer Vanishes

Oil reserves are rapidly depleting, eroding the world's crucial buffer against supply shocks. A concerning JP Morgan chart, discussed by David Russell of GoldCore and featured in Bloomberg, illustrates the drastic decline in total discovered oil reserves, measured in billions of barrels. These reserves initially built up during the COVID-19 pandemic when demand plummeted,…
05/18/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil Market Faces Billion-Barrel Deficit Amid Strait Crisis, Reserves Struggle to Compensate

Estimated losses in the oil market reached 800 million barrels in March-April, growing to 1 billion barrels by mid-May, according to the IEA. This compares to a cumulative intervention of 400 million barrels, including the US. Before the conflict, global observable reserves in February stood at 8,185 million barrels; however, a significant portion is operational,…
05/14/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage. The three pillars of the breakdown: (a) Physical Pillar. The Strait of Hormuz has been practically blocked since February 28, 2026: more than 20% of global oil traffic and 25% of…
05/04/20260Comments

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