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Tag: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck

HomeAll PostsTag: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck

STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Vertical shot of a SpaceX rocket tower against a blue sky in Dubai, UAE.

Analyse de marché

State and Evolution of SpaceX Stock Price (SPCX)

SpaceX's historic June 12, 2026 IPO, priced at $135/share, raised $75 billion, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. The stock opened at $150 (+11.1%), hit $176.52 intraday, and closed between $160-$173 (+19-28%), pushing its market cap above $2.1 trillion. The central thesis highlights severe negative convexity, typical of hyper-valued tech IPOs, with a 2025 revenue…

06/15/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.

Analyse de marché

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…

06/11/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Analyse de marché Cryptos

Décomposition complète de l’action MSTR

I. SYNTHÈSE EXÉCUTIVE Verdict quantitatif final La décomposition optionnelle de MSTR révèle une surévaluation structurelle de 18-24% selon nos modèles les plus avancés. L'action MSTR est effectivement un produit structuré à barrière avec des options cachées qui détruisent de la valeur. Évaluation par méthodes multiples (a) Modèle Black-Scholes-Merton ajusté : $128.50 (b) Arbre binomial trinomial : $129.80 (c)…

12/25/20250Comments

ByOleg Turceac