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Tag: OPEC

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Aerial landscape shot of a coastal oil refinery with storage silos under cloudy skies.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
2 jours ago0Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil Market Faces Billion-Barrel Deficit Amid Strait Crisis, Reserves Struggle to Compensate

Estimated losses in the oil market reached 800 million barrels in March-April, growing to 1 billion barrels by mid-May, according to the IEA. This compares to a cumulative intervention of 400 million barrels, including the US. Before the conflict, global observable reserves in February stood at 8,185 million barrels; however, a significant portion is operational,…
mai 14, 20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Cartel collapse and depressive supply shock. The withdrawal of Saudi Arabia and the UAE of OPEC/OPEC+

The simultaneous withdrawal declaration of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from OPEC and OPEC+ (April 28-29, 2026) constitutes the most severe institutional rupture in the oil market since 1985-1986. This study demonstrates that this exit is not a purely bearish signal but rather the prelude to a two-speed structural dislocation: …
avril 30, 20260Comments

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EconomieEconomie Etudes et réportages

 Le pivot énergétique indo-américain et ses implications systémiques pour la Russie

Le commerce pétrolier russo-indien a connu une évolution spectaculaire. De marginal (0.1-0.3 mb/j en 2019-2021), il a bondi à 0.8 mb/j après l'invasion de 2022, atteignant un pic de 1.9 mb/j en 2023 (40% des exportations russes), se stabilisant à 2.1 mb/j en 2024 avant des réductions prévues (1.8 mb/j en 2025, effondrement à 0.3-0.5…
février 10, 20260Comments

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