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Tag: Kalshi

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Industrial plant with reflection in water at twilight, showing smoke stacks and lights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
3 heures ago0Comments

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Aerial landscape shot of a coastal oil refinery with storage silos under cloudy skies.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
6 heures ago0Comments

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