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From above ten dollar banknote with inscription and United States treasury building placed on table
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Foreign state and institutional holdings of US Treasuries since the escalation of the Iranian conflict

We use exclusively verifiable public data, collected and processed by our Steelldy Risk Engine 3.4 infrastructure and Bloomberg Intelligence modules: - Treasury International Capital (TIC): Monthly and annual reports, raw and adjusted data for valuation and hedging effects, broken down by country and maturity (source: Treasury.gov). - Official reserve flows: IMF COFER (Currency…
06/25/20260Comments

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American flags displayed prominently on a historic Wall Street building in New York City.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Why Bank of America Still Sees Gold at $6,000 Despite Rate Hike Risks and Global Turmoil

Bank of America suggests gold could potentially reach $6,000, but not in the near term, due to significant headwinds from the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy. The bank was previously optimistic during gold's rally last year, expecting prices to hit $6,000 by spring. However, a recent correction has led its metals research team, led by…
06/23/20260Comments

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Industrial plant with reflection in water at twilight, showing smoke stacks and lights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refinery Activity and Supply Chain Integrity

Executive Summary Satellite signatures combined with AIS vessel tracking and OSINT currently indicate elevated refinery activity in US/Europe amid global disruptions, but severe anomalies in Middle East tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-June 2026, Hormuz transits are near-historic lows (often <10 vessels/day, down 70-97% from baseline), with widespread "dark" operations…
06/12/20260Comments

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A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…
06/11/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil Reserves Plummet: JPMorgan Warns of Looming Economic Shock as Global Buffer Vanishes

Oil reserves are rapidly depleting, eroding the world's crucial buffer against supply shocks. A concerning JP Morgan chart, discussed by David Russell of GoldCore and featured in Bloomberg, illustrates the drastic decline in total discovered oil reserves, measured in billions of barrels. These reserves initially built up during the COVID-19 pandemic when demand plummeted,…
05/18/20260Comments

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Closure of the straits (Malacca/Hormuz). Systemic famine scenario 2026-2028 : in the French context.

Analysis of signals from Steelldy Engine G (maritime AIS), Steelldy Engine F (fertilizer blockages), Steelldy Engine M (semantic panic), and Steelldy Engine O (strait closure probabilities) shows exceptional statistical convergence. Michael Yon's analysis (Feb-Apr 2026) regarding prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure and imminent Malacca Strait threats is now a 78% market reality (95% CI: 72–84%),…
05/02/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Oil and Gas Infrastructure Impact. Recession Risks through H2 2026

A JP Morgan Commodities Research table listing specific oil and gas assets hit across the Middle East, including pipelines, terminals, ports, depots, and fields in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, and Oman. The table details drone strikes, missile attacks, and fires causing capacity outages, with examples like partial shutdowns at Saudi East-West pipeline, full disruptions…
04/11/20260Comments

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