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Close-up view of the iconic United States Capitol dome with American flag in Washington, D.C.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Revaluation of official US gold, balance sheet monetization, and quantifiable implications

The US official gold reserves stand at 261,498,926 troy ounces (8,133.5 metric tons), valued at $42.2222 per ounce under the 1973 statute, totaling $11.041 billion. Market value at mid-July 2026 spot prices (~$4,050–4,130/oz) is approximately $1.06–1.08 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in July 2026 that all gold is accounted for, valuing over $1 trillion…
07/31/20260Comments

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Stock analysis workspace featuring charts, a calculator, and currency for data-driven insights.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Decline of Sovereign Bonds as a Safe-Haven Asset and Rotation Toward Gold

Summary: Since 2021, the US bond market has experienced upward pressure on yields, with the stock-bond correlation turning positive. Several institutions (Morgan Stanley, Osaic, Sagard) have officially reduced their allocation to fixed income in favor of gold and real assets. This study models this regime change using a two-state HMM, GARCH volatility, and a Merton…
07/31/20260Comments

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Digital art showcasing a 3D abstraction of golden floating cubes with a soft blurred background.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold Projected to Reach $5,000

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Aakash Doshi (State Street) predicts that gold's next $1,000 move will be upward, with consolidation around $4,000 before expanding to $4,750–$5,500. This forecast aligns perfectly with our proprietary quantitative models. By integrating market data, institutional flows, and geopolitical signals through M. Theory 4.2 and leveraging Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 and Quantum-Classical Hybrid 1.0 on…
07/30/20260Comments

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A close-up image of various world coins in a pile, highlighting different currencies.
Economic studies Reports

War, Hidden Inflation, and the Role of Gold and Silver as Monetary Anchors

https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…
07/28/20260Comments

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Illuminated Türkiye İş Bankası building in Ankara, Türkiye at night with vehicle motion blur.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché MarketsMarkets

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Geopolitical Pause Eases Sovereign Selling Pressure

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Current gold price is around $4,100-4,103/oz, with a neutral-to-bullish short-term stance but an intact seller regime risk. The divergence alert between the model and Polymarket is not triggered. Semantic NLP shows a "gold distrust" score of 0.48 (down from 0.62), with dominant themes being the Fed decision, US-Iran pause, oil easing, and PBOC purchases.…
07/27/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Systemic Evaluation of the “Selective Credit Crunch” and Modeling of Bank Non-Contagion

Private Credit will not trigger a systemic global banking crisis like 2008, but acts as an extreme amplifier of sector volatility, generating a "sawtooth recession" in corporate credit with a structural rotation towards AI-Native. The analysis conducted by integrating the 7 quantitative layers (semantic NLP, macro DSGE, factor decomposition, Markov-switching regimes, quantum-classical portfolio optimization,…
04/10/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Étude de la dislocation du “basis” or numérique vs or spot. Diagnostic de rupture de la parité et inférence de prix réel

Peter Reagan a noté qu'en début de semaine, les tokens d'or numérique se négociaient au-dessus de 5 500 dollars l'once, selon la cryptomonnaie spécifique. ... à propos de l'or numérique Il se trouve que j'ai vu le prix de l'or tokenisé avant le prix au comptant aujourd'hui. Et je me suis dit : L'or est-il…
03/06/20260Comments

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Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

Diagnostic de rupture du marché du Private Credit ($1.7T). Analyse de la crise de liquidité BCRED (Blackstone) et contagion BlackRock TCPC

VALEURS DE RÉFÉRENCE : BCRED Redemptions : 7.9% | Seuil de Gate : 5.0% | TCPC NAV Impact : -19% L'Éclosion du "Gating Squeeze" systémique L'activation imminente des "gates" (limites de retrait) sur le fonds BCRED de Blackstone ($82bn) marque le point de bascule vers un régime de "Shadow Banking Bank Run". Le dépassement…
03/05/20260Comments

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MarketsMarkets

Analyse comparative BlackRock vs Blackstone. Pénétration institutionnelle du marché résidentiel US (SFR) et modélisation d’impact macro-économique.

I. Analyse comparative BlackRock vs Blackstone L'examen comparatif des filiales résidentielles de BlackRock (BLK-R) et Blackstone (BX-R) montre une stratégie d'investissement visant l'industrialisation du logement locatif unifamilial (SFR). Cette approche cherche à générer une rente structurée via trois mécanismes : (i) un "carry" obligataire sur-collatéralisé, (ii) une convexité liée à l'inflation des loyers, (iii) et…
02/05/20260Comments

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