A long-only Bitcoin strategy with a target Sharpe ratio of 0.8–1.2 and 60–70% volatility is an inherently risky proposition. The asset is high-beta with extreme negative skew and fat tails. While the elevated Sharpe suggests a high risk premium, this masks a pathological risk of ruin during retail capitulation events.
The market's inefficiency stems…
The thesis puts forward a five-part proposition: (i) the "vital energy" mentioned in the source text is formally isomorphic to the economic quantity of human attention, a scarce, allocable, measurable resource, as theorized by Herbert Simon (1971) and Michael Goldhaber (1997); (ii) this resource is captured by large corporations through a chain of signaling (Spence,…
SpaceX is not a blockchain protocol, a crypto cloud, a native DePIN network, or an on-chain payment processor as of August 10, 2026. It is a physical infrastructure platform (launch, Starlink LEO constellation, emerging terrestrial/orbital AI clusters) whose systemic externalities make it the most credible physical layer zero for the decentralized economy, orbital data, resilient…
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SpaceX has a gross margin of 55.3%, but negative operating and net margins (-1.8% and -6.9%). Only Starlink connectivity is profitable (~+$1.66B OI), while Space and AI segments are loss-making. AWS boasts a 39.4% operating margin (+650 bps YoY), generating ~60% of Amazon's consolidated OI from ~21% of revenue. Microsoft Cloud's gross margin is…
Le secteur de l'IA et des infrastructures critiques observe une montée en puissance du financement via des véhicules spéciaux (SPV) et du shadow banking technologique, une tendance adoptée par les géants de la technologie (Big Tech, Semi, Cloud). Ces schémas, illustrés par NVIDIA/xAI, visent à accélérer la (i) reconnaissance des revenus, (ii) externaliser l'endettement (hors…
IA 2024-2030 : le paradoxe de la bulle spéculative et de la révolution technologique séquentielle
L'IA est une bulle spéculative et une révolution technologique. Les valorisations des startups sont excessives, mais l'infrastructure essentielle (NVDA, etc.) ne l'est pas. Euphorie en 2024-2025, puis correction (2026-2027), avant création de valeur réelle (2028-2030). Privilégier les vendeurs d'infrastructures…
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