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Tag: Transition Risks

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Aerial view of illuminated night-time city highways with dynamic light trails and bustling traffic.
DécarbonisationDécarbonisation

Transition Risks and Fuel Demand Reduction: Attribution to 15-Minute Smart Cities, Localized Smart Digitalized & Decarbonized Economies

Executive Summary Reduction in refined fuel demand (gasoline/diesel) is primarily driven by electrification (EV penetration ~25% global new sales 2025, displacing ~1.2 mb/d oil equivalent), efficiency gains (MPG improvements offsetting VMT growth), and behavioral shifts, not dominantly by 15-minute city models. The 15-minute city (proximity-based urbanism) and smart digitalized local economies contribute secondarily via…
5 heures ago0Comments

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Aerial landscape shot of a coastal oil refinery with storage silos under cloudy skies.
Analyse de marchéAnalyse de marché

BIS/WEF Context on Transition Risks Compressing Long-Term Refining Margins: Carbon Tracker-Style Analysis and Quantitative Projections for TotalEnergies

Executive Summary Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
6 heures ago0Comments

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