As of July 2, 2026, the |...| strategy started in May remains valid, with all four assets declining. Current returns for a |...|x short range from -185% to -297%:
- STXUSDT: -23.3% to -29.7% decline, ROI -233% to -297%; - LINKUSDT: -6.5% to -18.5% decline, ROI -65% to -185%; - AVAXUSDT: -25.8% to…
Executive Summary
Transition risks under 2°C pathways (IEA NZE/APS equivalents) drive structural demand destruction for refined products, compressing refining margins via volume contraction, utilization drops, and policy/carbon cost overlays. Carbon Tracker’s foundational 2017 “Margin Call” analysis projected >50% EBITDA decline by 2035 for ~94% of global capacity under a 2D scenario (oil demand -23%…
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