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Tag: Goldman Sachs

IA Supercycle CapEx. Stochastic Regime Modeling, Real Options Valuation, and Material Supply Chain Disruption

The statement by the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, that AI-related infrastructure now captures more than 10% of global merchandise trade, and that global AI investment (as a % of GDP) will reach and likely exceed historically allocated levels for railways, power grids, and telecommunications, marks a macroeconomic regime shift of a magnitude equivalent to…

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AI, semiconductors, robotics & biotech: the most capital-intensive investment cycle in history

AI capex has become an infrastructure cycle of utility-like scale , comparable to railroads or the electrical grid , with a readable value chain: semiconductors (the cluster of megacaps that the market now groups under acronyms like "MANBRIC": Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, and others), data centers, energy, and now physical robotics. Biotech remains the pocket…

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Why Diesel Prices Are the Real Story and What They Mean for Gold Investors

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points has drawn market attention, with 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%. However, Laurent Morel believe investors are overemphasizing the Fed's actions. While central banks can influence demand through borrowing costs, they cannot address physical supply constraints, no rate hike can produce an extra…

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How Circular Financing in AI Creates Hidden Risks Beneath a Boom

Circular financing in the AI sector refers to a tightly interlinked system of equity investments, compute commitments, guarantees, and off-balance-sheet structures among chipmakers, hyperscalers, AI labs, and data-center operators. Money and obligations circulate among a small group of counterparties, accelerating infrastructure buildout while amplifying downside risks if end-user monetization falls short. How It Works.…

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Crisis and Tactical Roadmap on the Turkish Lira (TRY) Crash

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The TRY is no longer a currency; it is an Exotic Option on Credibility. Traditional analysis (GDP, balance of payments) is obsolete. Our framework, based on M. theory and signal processing in "quantitative finance," reclassifies the Turkish Lira not as a currency subject to depreciation, but as a perpetual down-and-out barrier option on the…

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Structural risk of private banking blockchains on Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem

https://www.steelldy-indices.com JPMorgan's note from July 9, 2026 identifies a structural threat to Bitcoin and public cryptocurrencies: the rapid expansion of private and permissioned blockchains driven by commercial banks (Kinexys, JPM Coin, tokenized deposits, CBDCs). This trend, supported by settlement volumes exceeding $4 trillion on Kinexys, could siphon institutional demand for public digital assets by offering…

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Why OCBC Cut Its Gold Price Outlook by 15% While Other Banks Stay Bullish

On the last day of June, gold traded at $4,023 per ounce. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC), a major Southeast Asian bank, lowered its year-end gold forecast from $5,100 to $4,360, citing rising real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy. https://www.steelldy-indices.com The bank also reduced its silver forecast by about…

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