The statement by the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, that AI-related infrastructure now captures more than 10% of global merchandise trade, and that global AI investment (as a % of GDP) will reach and likely exceed historically allocated levels for railways, power grids, and telecommunications, marks a macroeconomic regime shift of a magnitude equivalent to…
AI capex has become an infrastructure cycle of utility-like scale , comparable to railroads or the electrical grid , with a readable value chain: semiconductors (the cluster of megacaps that the market now groups under acronyms like "MANBRIC": Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, and others), data centers, energy, and now physical robotics. Biotech remains the pocket…
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points has drawn market attention, with 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%.
However, Laurent Morel believe investors are overemphasizing the Fed's actions. While central banks can influence demand through borrowing costs, they cannot address physical supply constraints, no rate hike can produce an extra…
Circular financing in the AI sector refers to a tightly interlinked system of equity investments, compute commitments, guarantees, and off-balance-sheet structures among chipmakers, hyperscalers, AI labs, and data-center operators. Money and obligations circulate among a small group of counterparties, accelerating infrastructure buildout while amplifying downside risks if end-user monetization falls short.
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The TRY is no longer a currency; it is an Exotic Option on Credibility. Traditional analysis (GDP, balance of payments) is obsolete. Our framework, based on M. theory and signal processing in "quantitative finance," reclassifies the Turkish Lira not as a currency subject to depreciation, but as a perpetual down-and-out barrier option on the…
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Imaru Casanova, precious metals portfolio manager at VanEck, describes the recent correction in gold as "noise." This stance, far from being naive optimism, is based on rigorous quantitative analysis that we have reconstructed and validated using our internal engines (Steelldy 12.4, Steelldy Behavioral Matrix 2.1, Mosaic Theory 4.2).
The conclusions are…
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JPMorgan's note from July 9, 2026 identifies a structural threat to Bitcoin and public cryptocurrencies: the rapid expansion of private and permissioned blockchains driven by commercial banks (Kinexys, JPM Coin, tokenized deposits, CBDCs). This trend, supported by settlement volumes exceeding $4 trillion on Kinexys, could siphon institutional demand for public digital assets by offering…
On the last day of June, gold traded at $4,023 per ounce. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC), a major Southeast Asian bank, lowered its year-end gold forecast from $5,100 to $4,360, citing rising real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy.
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The bank also reduced its silver forecast by about…
On June 19, Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven lowered their year-end gold price forecast from $5,400 to $4,900. Specifically, Goldman Sachs no longer believes the Fed will cut rates in 2026, so the bank shifted its first expected rate cut to June 2027.
JPMorgan has not changed its position. Its year-end…
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