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Tag: gasoline

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Smoke billowing from industrial chimneys against a vibrant orange sunset sky in Gdańsk, Poland.

Décarbonisation

Transition énergétique

ESG/Fiscal Dimensions of Refiner Margin Squeeze: Carbon Pricing (Internal Shadow Prices) and Tax Loss Harvesting – TotalEnergies Case Study

1. Carbon Pricing Framework: Explicit (EU ETS) vs. Implicit/Internal Shadow Pricing TotalEnergies employs an internal carbon price (ICP)1 or shadow price in its project evaluations and asset impairment testing. Currently, its base case includes a minimum price of $100/tCO₂ (or higher jurisdictional prices) starting in 2023, with a 2% annual increase after 2030. Sensitivity…

juin 11, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A dimly lit TotalEnergies gas station at night in Nairobi, Kenya, featuring prominent signage.

Analyse de marché

Refiner Margin Squeeze and the 3:2:1 Crack Spread Signal: Technical Analysis with Focus on TotalEnergies (as of mid-June 2026)

Executive Summary The 3:2:1 crack spread serves as a primary proxy for gross refining margins, calculated as: 3:2:1 Crack Spread=2×PGasoline (bbl)+1×PDistillate/Heating Oil (bbl)−3×PCrude (bbl)3\text{3:2:1 Crack Spread} = \frac{2 \times P_{\text{Gasoline (bbl)}} + 1 \times P_{\text{Distillate/Heating Oil (bbl)}} - 3 \times P_{\text{Crude (bbl)}}}{3} where prices are typically futures-settled (e.g., WTI/RBOB/NYH HO for USGC benchmarks; Brent equivalents or regional baskets for Europe).…

juin 11, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Analyse de marché

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage

The convergence of physical, behavioral, and microstructural signals confirms that Europe, and particularly France, has entered a regime of asynchronous systemic energy shortage. The three pillars of the breakdown: (a) Physical Pillar. The Strait of Hormuz has been practically blocked since February 28, 2026: more than 20% of global oil traffic and 25% of…

mai 4, 20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac