The macro regime as of September 2, 2026, shows a strong U.S. dollar (DXY at ~99.73-99.80) and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (4.78-4.81%), pressuring risk assets. An oil supply shock (Brent ~$95.3, WTI ($4,290-4,325/oz) is declining due to real yields and dollar strength. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) identifies the current regime as "Transition"…
Dollar-backed stablecoins have become a dual-use instrument of U.S. economic power, extending the dollar's reach into markets where correspondent banking is weak or blocked while giving Washington new control points over issuers, reserves, and token freezes. Key data shows 90-98% of the stablecoin market is dollar-denominated, with Tether holding ~$141 billion in U.S. Treasury exposure,…
Bitcoin rallied 6% in the week of August 19, triggered by a yields at their highest since 2007, seen as a fiscal easing signal. CoinShares' James Butterfill noted the rally was driven by macroeconomic factors, not crypto-specific dynamics. T. Rowe Price identified the "debasement trade" as the key driver, where investors shift from cash and…
Gold (Sharpe 0.4-0.7, Volatility 12-15%) acts as a reserve asset, inversely correlated with the DXY. Its low Sharpe ratio is due to no carry yield and custody costs, but it offers absolute decorrelation during systemic geopolitical shocks. Physical gold is now central to monetary influence wars (BIS Basel 2024-2025). Steelldy Engine 3.8 and Planet Labs…
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Silver experienced a notable decline on July 13, 2026, dropping by 3.8%, surpassing gold’s decrease of 2.9% on the same day. This divergence pushed the gold-to-silver ratio to an elevated level of 69.4. Far from being an isolated event, this relative underperformance highlights silver’s unique dual character | as both a monetary asset and…
https://www.steelldy-indices.com
Silver (XAG) is undergoing a severe correction phase since its peak in January 2026 (~$120/oz) down to current levels of $58 (Western spot) and $64.79 (Shanghai). This 52% retracement reflects a conflict between strong physical fundamentals (green industrial demand, COMEX inventories under pressure) and macroeconomic headwinds (hawkish Fed, strong dollar, Iran ceasefire). Data…
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This week, Mike Roy reviewed two important ratio charts that help understand gold's position in its long-term bull market and where it may head next.
The first chart is the crucial long-term gold/DXY ratio. DXY itself is a ratio chart measuring the relative strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major…
The remarks by Diet member Nagahama in favor of a Bank of Japan rate hike to correct the excessive weakness of the yen, combined with the widening divergence between the rise in JGB yields and the inertia of USD/JPY, place Japan on the brink of a macro-financial shift of historic magnitude. Our multi-layered analytical architecture…
The transmission mechanism Yen strength → USD/JPY depreciation → yen carry trade deleveraging → global liquidity contraction → BTC risk-asset beta spike (~2–3x) remains empirically robust. However, it is significantly attenuated following the BoJ’s fully delivered and well-telegraphed 25 bps hike to 1.0% (highest since 1995) on 16 June 2026.
Speculative net-short JPY positions elevated…
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) trades at approximately $65,400–66,000, down ~0.8% in the observed session, within a recent consolidation range post a relief bounce from sub-$60k lows earlier in June 2026. The provided chart confirms a 1H/4H structure with MA5/10/20 clustering near $66,200–66,300, recent rejection at $67,255 highs, and downside probe the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around…
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