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Tag: Debt

STEELLDYThrough Steelldy consulting company, I assist companies, fintechs, and institutions in two key areas: ◙ Economic and financial statistical modeling via our DaaS & SaaS software (macroeconomic index platform). Analysis of the transition to a multipolar world: stablecoins, gold, copper, precious metals, industrial metals, oil, dollars, euros, yuan, yen, rubles, CBDC, BISIH, mBridge, Unified Ledger, BRICS, and global regulations. ◙ Web3 Law & Taxation Legal and Tax structuring of blockchain-based projects, RWA, tokenization, cryptocurrency (stablecoins, CBDC), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO), MiCA compliance, ISO 20022, AI, MANBRIC/biotech technologies, robotics, smart cities, and ESG taxonomy.

Golden Bitcoin coins scattered over US dollar bills, symbolizing modern digital currency.

Cryptos

The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD)

The correlation between Bitcoin and physical gold (XAU/USD) remains weak and unstable over the long term, making them an excellent diversification pair. Long-term (since 2015/3-5 years): average correlation ≈ +0.10 to +0.13. Over one year: typically between -0.17 and +0.32. Short-term (30 days): currently negative (recent readings between -0.31 and -0.46, with extremes at -0.88…

08/04/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Cryptos Tech

BTC, Liquidity Pools, Institutional Flows, and Sharpe Ratios

1. Liquidity Pools include: Binance spot ($5-10B daily), Coinbase spot ($1-3B), perpetuals from Binance, Bybit, OKX ($20-40B), CME Futures ($2-5B), US spot ETFs like IBIT and FBTC ($1-3B), and OTC/DP estimated at $2-5B. 2. Institutional flows show CTA trend-following algorithms are neutral with no large liquidation signals. ETF flows have slight net outflows recently,…

07/31/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

Detailed view of the US 100 dollar bill showing the Treasury seal and printed text.

Economic studies Reports

Real Yields on US Treasuries Collapse Below 1.2 %

Since the end of 2021, the 10-year yield has risen from ~1.5% to a peak of ~5% in autumn 2023, then stabilized around 4.6%. With a CPI at 3.5%, the real rate is: r = i - π = 4.6% - 3.5% = 1.1% Osaic has already reduced its fixed-income allocation from 40% to…

Revaluation of official US gold, balance sheet monetization, and quantifiable implications

The US official gold reserves stand at 261,498,926 troy ounces (8,133.5 metric tons), valued at $42.2222 per ounce under the 1973 statute, totaling $11.041 billion. Market value at mid-July 2026 spot prices (~$4,050–4,130/oz) is approximately $1.06–1.08 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in July 2026 that all gold is accounted for, valuing over $1 trillion…

Decline of Sovereign Bonds as a Safe-Haven Asset and Rotation Toward Gold

Summary: Since 2021, the US bond market has experienced upward pressure on yields, with the stock-bond correlation turning positive. Several institutions (Morgan Stanley, Osaic, Sagard) have officially reduced their allocation to fixed income in favor of gold and real assets. This study models this regime change using a two-state HMM, GARCH volatility, and a Merton…

Gold Projected to Reach $5,000

https://www.steelldy-indices.com Aakash Doshi (State Street) predicts that gold's next $1,000 move will be upward, with consolidation around $4,000 before expanding to $4,750–$5,500. This forecast aligns perfectly with our proprietary quantitative models. By integrating market data, institutional flows, and geopolitical signals through M. Theory 4.2 and leveraging Steelldy Risk Engine 12.4 and Quantum-Classical Hybrid 1.0 on…

07/30/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac

A close-up image of various world coins in a pile, highlighting different currencies.

Economic studies Reports

War, Hidden Inflation, and the Role of Gold and Silver as Monetary Anchors

https://www.steelldy-indices.com/https://www.steelldy-indices.com The persistence of armed conflicts (Ukraine, Iran, tensions in Asia) and disruptions in energy supply, analyzed in our previous articles (ST-0726-IRAN-GOLD, ST-0727-CHINA-GOLD), validate a fundamental premise of quantitative finance: wars are the primary driver of debt monetization and hidden inflation that erodes savers' wealth. Faced with a deficit in traditional financing (tax collection, bond…

French Debt Crosses the Rubicon: 30-Year OAT Yield Hits Phase Transition at 4.6926%

https://www.steelldy-indices.com The morning fixing of the 30-year French OAT yield at 4.6926% marks a "phase transition" market event. Cross-referenced with our proprietary risk engines, this level signals a critical threshold for French debt sustainability, with non-negligible probability of a self-fulfilling confidence crisis. Key findings: the 5-year implied probability of a French fiscal accident jumped from…

Five Key Reasons Gold Could Surge Above $5,000 by 2027

Gold prices are currently near fair value, setting the stage for further growth, according to WisdomTree's commodity and macroeconomic research head, Nitesh Shah. He believes the sharp correction in gold prices earlier this year did not mark the end of the long-term bull market but rather a return to fair value. Shah sees an opportunity…

As US Debt Reaches $31.3 Trillion, Global Investors Hedge with Gold and Dollar Alternatives

The ratio of U.S. government debt to GDP has reached 100%, a milestone not seen since World War II. According to a new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, the federal debt held by the public has equaled the nation's total economic output. Analysts warn that without immediate policy changes, debt will continue to outpace the…

07/03/20260Comments

ByOleg Turceac